BEIRUT, Lebanon – Pressure to disarm Hezbollah has intensified, with the US leading the way and being supported by several Lebanese factions.
Last year, the Israeli war with Lebanon, which killed many of the group’s top leadership, and hundreds of civilians, including at least 200 children, engulfed the group, exacerbated by the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in neighbouring Syria.
Hezbollah’s enemies are currently taking advantage of these situations.
“It is clear that Hezbollah must be disarmed and that Israel will not accept terrorists shooting at their country,” the deputy ambassador for the special envoy of the Middle East Morgan Ortags told Lebanese broadcasters during his visit to the country on April 6.
When asked in another interview whether pushing Hezbollah could lead to internal conflict, Ortagus said he needs to treat Hezbollah like “cancer.”
She also said economic and banking reforms are important to stop the cash economy that allows Hezbollah to operate outside the banking network and away from US regulations.
The group has been in the most unstable position since it was formed during the Lebanese civil war.
On the one hand, it’s unlikely that they’d want to disarm without major incentives, but on the other hand, pressures are piled up between the US and domestically, and Israel continues to attack in Lebanon. Israel can use the “Hezbollah element” as justification and restructure foreign funds in Lebanon together.
Hezbollah is still there
However, much of the debate surrounding Hezbollah’s arms doesn’t take into account the group itself or its attitude.
Hezbollah has not officially announced that it will disarm. However, the group recognizes that rebuilding of many of its supporters’ homes relies on government access to foreign aid.
Hezbollah would not accept “giving up the de facto arm from principles,” Karim Safiedin, a Lebanese political writer and doctoral student in sociology at the University of Pittsburgh, told Al Jazeera. Instead, they were able to disarm “in exchange for great profits.”
Reuters news agency reported that a senior Hezbollah official said that if Israel withdraws from five points in southern Lebanon, if it continues to occupy it, the group will consider disarming, despite the group’s media office later denying its report.
“Hezbollah agrees to a national dialogue to develop a defense strategy, but will not discuss disarmament,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst who is considered to be close to the group. “It is currently impossible to discuss disarmament while Israel’s occupation continues. But if Israel retreats, we don’t know what will happen.”
Hezbollah is not a force that was thought to have been 18 months ago. Most of its arsenals were destroyed, its military leader was killed during the war with Israel, and its main route to receiving weapons was closed when Al-Assad fled to Moscow in December.
The group still maintains general support in most of the South, but Lebanese forces now dominate mainly over southern Lebanon.
Despite the weakening of regional stance, many analysts believe Hezbollah can challenge national actors, including the military.
“Hezbollah is weakening, but it’s still strong from a Lebanese perspective,” said a western diplomat who is speaking anonymously. “They cannot scare or threaten Israel, but they still have enough weapons to pose a threat internally.”
Some quarters have the fear that if Hezbollah is pushed into the corner, it can rampage and draw the country into civil conflict.
“Yes, the pressure is really amazing,” Kassie said.
“But I will rule out civil war.”
Pressure on the new government
Before Israel’s war with Lebanon, Hezbollah was the most influential military and political actor in the country.
It attracted a large portion of support from Lebanon’s Shia Muslim community. Its political expression, along with the theatre movements of its allies, reportedly using violence against its political enemies at times.
It still has many general support in some parts of the country, but it appears that Hezbollah’s political and military hegemony is over.
“This happens whenever there is a turbulence and Hezbollah has experienced a turbulence,” said Hilal Kashan, a professor of political science at the American University in Beirut.
At home, as President Joseph Own has repeatedly stated, there appears to be a consensus among power brokers that the state must be the sole arbitrator of arms, with a clear message to Hezbollah.
“A decision will be made and its implementation will be through dialogue without force relying on it,” Aoun told Al Jazeera in an interview.
The president appears to have been supported by French President Emmanuel Macron.
However, this measured approach has not been universally appreciated, and pressure has been built up on the governments of AON and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to take a more aggressive approach in several quarters, particularly from the government of US President Donald Trump.
“These forces basically allow Hezbollah to be reorganized and believe that it is not strict enough,” Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Middle East Program in the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazeera.
That view is also shared by several Lebanese groups, including the Lebanese Army (LF), a right-wing Christian party with four ministers in a Salam-led government. Two top LF leaders, Samir Geagea and Georges Adwan, both take a bullish stance.
Geagea criticized the concept of national dialogue around Hezbollah’s arm, saying that a tight six-month deadline should be applied.
Adwan, the deputy commander of the LF, attacked one of Salam’s ministers’ allies because Hezbollah said he could not disarm it by force, saying disarming should be encouraged through reconstruction. Adwan also mentioned the possibility of removing the LF Minister from the Salam government.
However, internal pressure from the LF may not have the power or influence of Hezbollah or the government to act.
“The Lebanese military cannot do much, but they are politically depositing their banks in the bank,” Safieddine said.
Washington has power
As the domestic struggle unfolds, experts and analysts said Hezbollah’s weapons issues have been decided at other stages. Trump administration talks with Washington and Iran, a longtime supporter of Hezbollah.
Iran and the US held a meeting through Oman in Muscat on Saturday, ready for another round in Rome this weekend.
The talks are supposed to focus on Iran’s nuclear program, but experts believe Iran-backed groups on the “axis of resistance” are also on the agenda.
“Iran understands that if they want to continue their nuclear program, they want to continue calling for the so-called resistance axis of Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, then the costs will be too high,” Kashan said.
“Hezbollah understands they have to disarm, and that will happen not because of local pressure in Lebanon, but because of the political will of the military capabilities of the United States and Israel,” he continued.
The possibility of Hezbollah’s disarming seems closer than any other point in the group’s 40-year history. However, some analysts warned that Washington’s approach should consider the sensitivity of Lebanon’s current leadership and the attempts to connect with Hezbollah’s traditional support base.
“We must create a new sense of social belonging in Shia communities and find ways to make people feel that the nation can express their interests,” Safieddine said, adding that sectarian social belonging can replace loyalty to Hezbollah.
“The US can’t do that,” he said.
But for Washington, these seem unimportant in the grand endeavors of reshaping the region. The Trump administration and previous Biden administrations have consistently ignored local actors in these attempts.
“Washington feels that it will unleash these various conflicts and in some way lead to some sustainable peace, with little attention to governance in these countries,” Hall said.
“Half of the last year cannot avoid issues like Palestinian issues, Lebanon’s governance and corruption issues, Yemen and Syria, etc., but it appears that there is still an effort to do so.”