ARK Insver’s Big Ideas 2025 will project Bitcoin value for 2030 for around $500,000 in the bare case, $1.2 million in the base scenario, and up to $2.4 million in the bull case.
The model supporting Ark’s view relies on six major capital import sources and is driven by a total addressable market (TAM) and various penetration assumptions.
The company’s analysis highlights institutional investments (particularly spot Bitcoin ETFs) as the biggest driver in the case of bulls, donating 43% of the total capital inflow.
But the “digital gold” story remains the biggest driver in the bear and base scenario. Other reasons include the allocation of the Ministry of Corporate Treasury, an increase in market investors looking for safe shelter from inflation, the Nation-State Treasury, which could use Bitcoin as a strategic preparation, and an expansion of Bitcoin-based on-chain financial services.
With the exception of Bitcoin’s on-chain financial services, which are expected to grow at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of up to 60%, ARK carefully projects a CAGR of 3% against the TAMs of most contributors.
Investment companies also highlight a fixed supply of Bitcoin, which is projected to reach around 20.5 million coins by 2030 as a major determinant of the increase in value.
Ark Invest believes that Bitcoin’s future price targets are justified by an increased role as a global financial asset, which is receiving capital inflows from many instruments. It is considered a valuable shop, especially in developing countries where citizens face inflation and currency devaluation.
The spread of national state adoption, starting with countries like El Salvador and Bhutan, was also recently announced by President Donald Trump in the US, reinforces the bull incident.
Furthermore, the growing adoption of Bitcoin and the growth of financial services on chains such as Lightning Network and WBTC have further enhanced the potential for Bitcoin’s capital. These dynamics predict the validity of the structure, Ark says.
According to Kraken’s price supply, Bitcoin was trading at $95,105.46 at the time of press.