US President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the US and Ukraine had agreed to a key mineral trade draft that, according to the president, could be worth around $1 trillion. The proposed contract is seen as an attempt by Kiev to win support for the new US administration amid tensions over Washington’s outreach to Moscow to end the Ukrainian war.
The obvious deal comes a week after Ukrainian President Voldy Mie Zelensky rejected an earlier draft. Ukrainian leaders were airing his complaints about being excluded from US-Russia talks in order to end the Ukrainian war. On Wednesday, Zelenskyy described the agreement as a Ramework economic deal, saying so far KVIV had not secured security guarantees from the US.
Recently, a mass rift between Trump and Zelensky escalates into a war of words, raising concerns in Kiev and the European capital, and that Trump may rush to deal with Moscow and end Russian terms .
Here’s what we know so far:
What do we know about the mineral trade in Ukraine?
Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Tuesday that Zelensky wanted to visit Washington on Friday to sign “a very big deal.”
“I’ve heard he’s coming on Friday. Certainly, if he wants to, it’s fine for me. And he wants to sign with me. I think that’s a big deal. .”
Trump said the deal is worth up to $1 trillion and that American taxpayers will get their money back.
On Wednesday evening, Zelenskyy said the agreement he said was an economic framework for cooperation with the US did not include current US security guarantees.
However, the draft contract said the US wanted Ukraine to be “free, sovereign and secure.” Media reports say previous draft deals were rejected last week by Zelenskyy due to lack of details regarding Ukraine’s security guarantees. Details of the transaction draft have not been made public.
Zelensky said Monday that he was ready to step down for peace, but demanded that Kiev be granted membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a way to ensure the country’s security. However, Washington calls NATO membership demand “unrealistic.”
“This is very important. Certainly, according to the Ukrainians we’ve spoken to all week, this (the deal) is considered to be a way for Donald Trump to get what he wants. Because there is,” said Charles Stratford of Al Jazeera.
The deal is “considering harvesting up to 50% of Ukrainian minerals and rare earth materials,” Stratford reported from Kiev, adding that the time frame is uncertain.
Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 heavy metals found worldwide in the Earth’s crust. Some of the rare earth elements such as neodymium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, yttrium, terbium and europium are used in the manufacture of high-tech products such as computer hard drives, televisions, mobile screens, and camera lenses.
Why does Trump want Ukrainian minerals?
The US president said Washington is seeking minerals from Kiev in exchange for billions of dollars in aid in the war with Russia over the past three years.
Earlier this month, he told White House reporters that he wanted “equalization” for the nearly 37.585 billion people Washington sent Ukraine. He repeated this on Tuesday, saying, “We are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on Russia and Ukraine to fight a war that would never have happened.”
The estimates of Trump’s aid sent to Kiev are inconsistent with data from the US government itself. The United States has paid $183 billion to support Ukraine as of September 30, 2024, according to Ukraine Surveillance, a website created to record the aid the Ukrainian government sends to Ukraine.
Currently, the largest producer of rare earth minerals is China, extracting at least 60% of global supply and processing, with at least 90% of which adopting a near monopoly.
According to the US Geological Survey, the US relied on China, Malaysia, Japan and Estonia for 80% of its rare earth needs in 2024.
Since taking office on January 20th, Trump has imposed tariffs on China, which is shaking global markets, including Canada and Washington’s biggest rival.
His push to get a rare earth deal with Kiev is part of his agenda to make the US a hub for big technology. During his campaign, he also accused another close US ally, Taiwan of stealing the US chip business. He threatened to impose tariffs on Taiwan, the leading exporter of computer chips. Amidst the threat of tariffs, Taiwan has pledged to promote investment in the US.
Last month, Trump announced that the private sector would invest $500 million in domestic artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Apple Inc announced Tuesday it would invest $500 million amid pressure from Trump that demanded it be manufactured in the US to create jobs for Americans. Most Apple devices, including the bestselling iPhones, are manufactured in China.
“Donald Trump appears to have broken all the norms of international policy by doing this. He loses a lot of our soft power by trading,” says the Russian Center for European and Asian Studies. The Teresa Fallon Global Council, director of the Chicago senior fellow, told Al Jazeera.
“It’s okay to be a transaction,” Fallon said, but “it’s just a horror,” she said.
What important minerals are there in Ukraine?
Ukraine has 22 elements of the 34 substances that the European Union defines as “critical raw materials,” with the country’s reserves accounting for around 5% of global stocks.
“About 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials” are found in Ukraine, accounting for just 0.4% of the surface of the earth,” said Svetlana Grinchuk, deputy minister of environmental protection and natural resources in Ukraine, in 2022. said at the United Nations Conference. With just over 600,000 square kilometers (232,000 square miles), Ukraine is Europe’s largest country by region other than Russia.
According to a report from the Ukraine Geological Survey, Ukraine accounts for 7% of global titanium production. The report adds that the reserves discovered in Ukraine correspond to 15 years of titanium production worldwide. Ukraine also has graphite, nickel and cobalt reserves.
Ukraine says its rare earth minerals and other important minerals, such as tantalum, niobium and beryllium, are located in six locations across the country.
What did Zelenskyy say?
Ukrainian President Zelenki confirmed on Wednesday that there was an agreement on the table, but framed it as a broader economic partnership initiative than merely a mineral trade.
He also confirmed that Ukraine has so far no security guarantee against Russian attacks.
“In my view, I did not let the relevant agreement sign because we are not ready to defend us,” Zelenskyy was quoted as saying by the Associated Press at the Munich Security Council on February 15th. .
Ukraine has been demanding entry into NATO to ensure its security as it occupys a large strip of Ukraine, including Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
Last week, Zelenskyy repeated his opposition to a deal in which the United States sought $500 million rights to Ukraine’s natural wealth. He also questioned Trump’s claim that Washington gave Kyiv more than $300 billion in aid.
“You can’t count up to $500 million and say, ‘Give me 500 million dollars back in minerals.’ That’s not a serious discussion,” Zelenskyy said on February 19th.
What was the response in Europe?
French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to support the rare earth trade. “Macron himself has approved the plan and he considers it important, which could potentially lead to the beginning of a true peace negotiation,” said Al Jazeera’s Stratford. .
Macron also supported Trump’s peace efforts, but warned against the deal at the expense of Ukraine’s “subord.”
“This peace must allow Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow Ukraine to negotiate with other stakeholders,” Macron said after meeting with Trump in Washington.
Macron was making a diplomatic visit to Washington after Trump removed European leaders from the Ukraine and Ukraine Peace Conference. Washington’s NATO allies were also blinded by Trump’s overture to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Macron also held two meetings as European leaders scrambled for answers in the wake of Trump’s dramatic policy changes towards Ukraine.
Europe is divided into his response to Trump’s peace moves and his demand that Ukraine’s security should be guaranteed by European countries. Trump believes the US is picking up almost every tab to support Ukraine and hopes Europe will take the driver’s seat.
Trump supports the idea that the Kremlin is opposed to Ukrainian European troops, but contributes to the “form of peacekeeping that everyone can accept.”
The UK and Sweden have offered to deploy their troops to Ukraine as part of a future peace deal, but Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, is opposed to the idea. During his talks with Trump, Macron said European countries “need to do more… they need to share the security burden more equitably.”
European countries are also considering increasing defence spending demanded by Trump.
Retiring German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz has criticized Trump’s rare earth trade as “very selfish” and “very selfish.” Scholz argues that Ukraine demands natural resources to rebuild from the devastation caused by the war.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who won the German election on Sunday, denounced Trump’s attack on Zelensky.
“After Donald Trump’s remarks last week… it’s clear that this government doesn’t care much about the fate of Europe,” he said.