Voters believed Donald Trump returned to the White House in November and that he was better for the economy than his opponent, Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.
But 100 days after Trump’s second presidential term, voters are now facing an economic landscape with uncertainty.
Among its attributes are the odds of a recession as high as 60%, the barely bulging inflation rates, and stock markets that have been plagued by volatility until recently.
The problem is Trump’s tariff strategy.
Through the campaign he said he plans to impose tariffs on goods brought into the US, but consumers and businesses shocked what Trump had done and how quickly he did it. Mexico.
“There were a lot of economic policies in those first 100 days, more than any other administration I could think of,” says Mark Zandy, chief economist for Moody’s analysis.
The deployment of tariffs is also marked by start and stop, providing a different rationale for each obligation, and tariff levels may change within one day.
To this day, Trump’s tariff plans continue to evolve. He suspended the country-by-country tariffs he announced at the Rose Garden Ceremony this month on “Liberation Day.”
And on Tuesday, in a speech marking the first 100 days of his second term, he also softened some of the tariffs on cars and auto parts. At a rally in Warren, Michigan, Trump called it “the first 100-day management of our country’s history.”
Overall, the rollout of tariffs and the uncertainty it created led to intense economic and economic upheavals.
In November, we take the best price for many voters. The preferred measure of price growth for the Federal Reserve is only around 2.5%. It is within the historical average, but exceeds the official 2% target of the central bank. Grocery prices growth surged in the first week of Trump’s administration amid increasing egg costs, but they’ve been down ever since.
Still, along with the 10% tariffs Trump has imposed on imports into the US and other obligations, such as China and Mexico, the US imports food, can further raise the costs of food, according to some experts.
Gas prices remain at the level of Biden’s era. Airfares are falling, but as consumers pull back essential spending, it is primarily a function of declining demand.
Mortgage rates are falling year by year, but the pace of home sales has become an ice age, and March marks the start of the real estate industry’s usual busy spring season – sales of previously owned homes fell to the slowest interest rates since 2009.
The NBC News’ affordable home price index shows a modest improvement in consumers’ ability to buy homes in the first three months of Trump’s second term, but that’s far above its pre-pandemic levels.
In terms of stock, the S&P 500 has lost around 8% since January 20th.
Several data is supported. The unemployment rate is stable at around 4.2%, but retail sales remain active.
The Barclays Financial Group said on Monday that daily credit card transaction data and employment trends “so far, it has shown the cause of most concerns about US activity.”
“The latest momentum in spending and new overjoying posts is in line with and before point-in comparisons with the previous year,” the company said.
Overall, it is difficult to find a measure of economic activity that has dramatically improved since Trump’s second term began. And while many data points show that the economy is hanging for now, there has been a major degradation in business and consumer sentiment and outlook. Such research does not always lead to slow economic growth, but they suggest that a more coarse situation may be ahead.
Almost every measure of consumer confidence tracked by Wall Street companies, including a monthly survey of more conservative National Federation of Independent Small Businesses, shows a decline in economic optimism.
“Over the past few months, implementation of new policy priorities has increased the level of uncertainty among small business owners,” federal chief economist Bill Dunkilberg said in a statement this month. “Small business owners have reduced their expectations for sales growth to better understand how these restructurings will affect them.”
The University of Michigan Consumer Trust Survey also plummeted, showing its biggest three-month decline since the 1990s.
“Expectations for a huge belt of population beyond age, education, income and political affiliation have deteriorated,” investigator director Joan Huss said in a statement.
“Consumers have largely recognized risks in multiple aspects of the economy due to continued uncertainty about trade policy and the potential for future revival of inflation. Labor market expectations remained bleak.
Some rise in economic activity could be the result of consumers and businesses trying to preempt tariffs by stocking household goods and businesses inventory, as tariffs are being borne, experts say.
“It has a front-running effect,” said Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited Funds Investment Group. “We’ve heard a lot of anecdotal stories related to it. There was a lot of pulled car demand, like the demand for cars,” he said. “But even small items show signs of advance purchases regarding concerns that price increases will be ahead.”
The latest version of the beige economic situation of the Federal Reserve in the United States has fallen sharply as Trump has stepped up immigration crackdowns, particularly in sectors and regions that rely on foreign tourism.
“The big attractions that normally attract international visitors have reported that international travelers, particularly Canada, airports and airlines, have reported a significant decline in foreign passengers to the US,” the Atlanta Fed said.
In a statement, a White House spokesperson noted that there was actually a monthly negative inflation in the March Consumer Price Index. This means, on average, typical prices have fallen since February. Spokesman Kush Desai has also been designed to re-fire manufacturing into the US, including investment commitments from companies such as Apple, Nvidia and Hyundai.
“President Trump’s first American policy provides much-needed economic relief to everyday Americans, laying the foundation for a long-term recovery of American greatness,” Desai said.
And at a press conference that marks Trump’s first 100 days, Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent and White House press chief Caroline Leavitt shook off any concerns about the economy.
“The actual data was very good,” Bescent said. “The job data is good (and) Americans continue to spend.”
“Trust in President Trump,” Levitt said when reporters asked how Americans should think about this period of economic turmoil. “There’s a reason he was re-elected to this office, because of the historical success of his economic officials in his first semester.”
David Seif, chief economist at Nomura Holdings Financial Group, said it was not the tariffs themselves that created the troublesome economic environment. Rather, it is the uncertainty associated with their charges that hinder businesses’ spending and employment, preventing the economy from settling on a more stable footing.
There’s a way for him to regain positive momentum, Safe said, due to concerns about how Americans see his performance in the economy. If Trump finds a way to retreat his ambitions or stand up from his more provocative stance, memories of the first few months of his second term could fade quickly.
“Uncertainty is the worst aspect of all this,” Saif said. “As long as it is considered completely decisive, if today’s plans are announced, it will allow businesses to start investing again.”