As Bitcoin (Cryptography: BTC) Investors, understanding all the information there can be confusing. And that’s especially true with regard to the weekly influx of new macroeconomic data. It is becoming increasingly difficult to separate the signal from the noise.
So, to get it all out, here are three numbers that will help you root your thoughts about where Bitcoin is heading next.
First, make sure this number is out of the way. Many very smart people on Wall Street think that Bitcoin will reach a price of $1 million by 2030. And even those numbers may be too small. For example, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest recently doubled its forecast that Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million within the next five years.
This price forecast for more than $1 million is not a skiing figure. In fact, it is based on a very sophisticated building block model approach to evaluation. Looking at some of the key areas where Bitcoin is rapidly gaining adoption, if you make some educated speculations about future growth in those areas, you can reach your future price targets.
Image source: Getty Images.
Working backwards from the million dollar count gives you a lot of insight. For example, Bitcoin means that it must clear the $1 million price hurdle at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 60% over that five years. In her original $1.5 million price forecast, Wood used a CAGR of 75%.
These numbers are more plausible than many people would initially expect, given that Bitcoin has routinely filed triple-digit annual percentage returns for much of its history. For example, in 2024, Bitcoin was the world’s most performant asset, with 125% gains. Over the 10 years from 2011 to 2021, Bitcoin provided 230% annual revenue.
The new Spot Bitcoin Exchange Fund (ETF) has raised $100 billion from investors. Since its launch in January 2024, these ETFs have been some of the most successful new products in Wall Street history.
Currently, Top Spot Bitcoin ETF is iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) It drew an astounding $50 billion from investors from BlackRock. To show how big this number is, in November 2024, the amount invested in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF exceeded that invested in gold ETFs. And gold ETFs have been around for nearly 20 years.
Tracking investor inflows and outflows has become a new entertainment for Bitcoin investors. The idea here is very simple. If money is flowing into the ETF, it means that the price of Bitcoin will rise. And if the money is leaking out of the ETF, that means the price of Bitcoin will drop. For example, during the worst period of tariff uncertainty, these Bitcoin ETFs posted five consecutive weeks of leaks.
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These ETFs have reached the point where they hold more Bitcoin than anyone in the world. This has therefore become an important tool for measuring investor sentiment.
Currently, Bitcoin’s biggest sovereign holder is the US, with 198,109 bitcoins. Bitcoin’s biggest corporate holder is Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), with 528,185 Bitcoin. And Ishares Bitcoin Trust? Well, it has 575,856 bitcoins and is at the top.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately $1.7 trillion. However, the number surged past the $2 trillion mark in January, when Bitcoin hit its new all-time high of $109,000. This market capitalization figure is very easy to calculate. All you need to do is multiply the current spot price of around $85,000 by the number of Bitcoins in circulation (19.84 million). Using rapid math, Bitcoin needs to hit $100,000 to return to this $2 trillion valuation.
This $2 trillion figure is important for reasons. This means that Bitcoin has roughly the same rating as the world’s largest tech stocks. By comparison, Amazon’s market capitalization is $2.1 trillion. Google Parent Alphabet’s market capitalization is approximately $1.9 trillion. Only a few high-tech stocks from Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft have a higher rating than Bitcoin.
In fact, Standard Chartered recently concluded that it might be more beneficial to think of Bitcoin as a tech stock rather than a cryptocurrency. That’s because Bitcoin is beginning to exchange more and more like tech stocks based on correlation. We proposed a new “magnificent 7” known as the “magnificent 7b.” (To keep the stocks at 7, analysts tossed Tesla, which I stumbled recently and replaced with Bitcoin.)
Putting all three of these numbers together we can come up with a mental model of how Bitcoin works, what factors will affect its rise and fall, and what a realistic assessment of Bitcoin is. At the very least, focusing on these three numbers will help you separate the signal from noise and give you a better understanding of how Bitcoin fits into the global financial markets.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of the board of directors of Motley Fool. Dominic Basulto has positions in Amazon and Bitcoin. Motley Fools are located and recommend Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Bitcoin, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Motley Fool recommends the following options: A $395 phone at Microsoft for January 2026 length and a $405 phone to Microsoft for January 2026 short term. Motley Fools have a disclosure policy.
Three important figures to know for 3 Bitcoin investors were originally published by The Motley Fool
