Earlier this week, President Donald Trump’s administration announced the imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico. On March 6, the US President announced that for a month it has been exempt from all products that are part of the US-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA).
Meanwhile, the Department of Defense continued its military accumulation along the tropical border, deploying an additional 3,000 troops.
Trump argues that these steps are necessary to halt the flow of fentanyl and undocumented people trying to get out of Mexico to the United States. However, data shows that fentanyl deaths have declined significantly over the past year, and the number of border crossings has also dropped significantly.
So, what is Trump’s real motivation?
First, Trump is trying to distract him from the turmoil of his own internal economic policy. He campaigned by “fixing” the US economy, but inflation rose to 3%, consumer confidence was volatile, gasoline prices continued to rise, and thousands of federal employees were fired.
Secondly, and more importantly, Trump is trying to impose Monroe’s doctrine. There, they bully Mexico and, in other parts of Latin America, seeking to adhere to a new era of gunboat diplomacy without fear of retaliation.
These are times of danger for Mexico and Latin America. Signs of strategic and military accumulation are clear. The Gulf of Mexico’s name change to the “American Gulf,” labelling eight Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, stepping up a CIA secret drone mission deep in Mexican territory, and the deployment of the striker brigade combat team is Prime Minister Petetes.
The deployment of the military and escalating rhetoric creates the conditions for US military invasion into Mexico. If so, it fits neatly into the long history of US attacks on Southern neighbours and Latin America that began with the so-called Monroe doctrine 200 years ago.
In 1823, then President James Monroe proposed a policy that sought to solidify American hegemony over the region, poses as opposed to European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere.
The doctrine served as a springboard for the expansion of the US empire over the northern regions of Mexico during the Mexican-American War (1846-1848), and took over lands in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Colorado and Wayom when the United States took over lands that were part of the states of California.
The US Army then used the upheaval of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920) as an excuse to infiltrate their southern neighbors twice more.
This doctrine not only justified the US invasions of Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba, but also helped to justify various secret interventions across Latin America.
Today, as the United States faces challenges to global hegemony from China and Russia in the Americas, redux of Monroe’s doctrine emerges as an ad hoc justification for reasserting US dominance over the region.
Mexico is suffering first for reasons. The country not only occupy a strategic location that shares a 3,000-km (2,000-mile) border with the US, but also has the second largest economy in Latin America with GDP of $1.79 trillion. Mexico’s economy is closely linked to the US, but it is the second largest trading partner to diversify its trading partners and China (the US enemy) has won a trade volume of $100 million.
In 2024, China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $477 million, up from $13.6 million in 2008. In 2023, there were reports that Mexico had expressed interest in joining the Chinese-controlled BRIC. Nevertheless, this year, Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva invited Mexico, Uruguay and Colombia to attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in July.
Mexico is currently led by left-leaning President Claudia Sheinbaum Prado. He is a cool, smart but fierce leader and is praised by his peers. She enjoys nearly 80% approval ratings and has repeatedly said she will defend Mexico’s sovereignty.
In an effort to show that she is willing to work together to avoid tariffs, her government has successfully stepped up anti-drug operations, handing over 29 high-level cartel leaders to the United States, and announced the arrests and seizures of record numbers of fentanyl and other illegal drugs the previous month.
But Trump is really uninterested in dealing with the complex issues of drug smuggling and migration that his country has created by relying on drug addiction and cheap labor. The US president wants to use military accumulation at the border to intimidate the president of Mexico and curb the influence of Mexico’s China.
It remains to be seen whether Sheinbaums will be lined up or not. Meanwhile, Trump continues to use the pretext of a war on drugs and migration, establishing the redux of Monroe’s doctrine in Mexico and Latin America. This has threatened him to regain the Western Hemisphere for over 200 years.
The views expressed in this article are the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.