This may be the most exaggerated Tesla income in recent memory. And not all the right reasons.
Tesla has earned many hits this year as CEO Elon Musk is leaning even further into right-wing politics, overseeing Doge, the advisory body that President Trump has awarded the power to cut federal spending.
For Tesla, it meant looking at both stock prices and global sales. And it doesn’t take into account pressure from competitors in China, Europe and North America.
As Tesla Bull and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a memo this morning, Tesla is facing expectations for the lowest quarter margin for the first time in 12 years. How Tesla’s stock works depends on the company’s ability to explain why its profit margins are worse than Volkswagen’s, in “highly likely to be cash burns,” instills trust in autonomy plans and encourages Musk’s attention to being apart from the White House.
Analysts surveyed by Yahoo Finance are expected to remain flat year-on-year from $25.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Tesla’s first quarter 2025 revenue calls are 2:30pm and 5:30pm. The public can listen along the phone by tuning here, here or on the X. This is what we are hearing.
Updated EV Sales Guidance
During Tesla’s final revenue call, the company said it expects its vehicle business to “return to growth in 2025.” Does that still apply given Tesla’s unimpressive delivery numbers in the first quarter and weak customer demand, driven in part by mask politics?
Tesla recorded 336,681 delivery in the first three months of the year, marking its worst quarterly performance in more than two years.
Automakers have several tailwinds. It’s better to weather the Trump tariff storm with domestic sourcing and high vertical integration than other OEMs. That said, Musk’s proximity to Trump probably doesn’t help his popularity in China, one of Tesla’s biggest markets. Its dynamics can drive more customers into the open arms of rival BYD.
A mention of cheap ev
Tesla sources report that the automaker has only delayed its deployment in a few months, but others have reported that the company has largely abandoned plans for cheap EVs. Either way, we’ll hear updates there.
Robotaxi Rollout
During Tesla’s 2024 full-year revenue call, Musk said the company will launch a paid passenger compartment Robotaki service in Austin starting June this year. He has stated in the past that Tesla will first use Model Y and Model 3 vehicles with “unsupervised” FSDs, rather than a two-seater cybercab concept built without steering or pedals.
A Cantor research analyst said: “Tesla has not yet quantified the commercialization of the Robotax segment or has not disclosed its initial route/territories.” As such, investors and analysts are looking for more specific details of Tesla’s Austin plan.
The automaker also said it will launch in California this year, but it’s moms who will be more details about them.
Cybercab production
We’d also like to hear some updates on Tesla’s cybercab. Federal regulations currently do not allow operators to mass-produce and deploy self-driving cars without built-in human control without exemptions. Musk is likely to bend that regulation to his will, just as he isn’t trying to do, so he may gain insights as Tesla plans to start producing these future-looking vehicles.
Optimus Updates
In the fourth quarter, Musk said he hopes Tesla will begin using Optimus Humanoid robots internally this year, especially due to “boring” tasks. It’s when you listen to the timeline for that, when you say Tesla will start mass production of Optimus, and when you expect to start the first delivery.
Dojo or cortex
Musk and Tesla have been quiet in Dojo since August 2024. This is what Gung Ho thinks is a surprise about the supercomputers that will help the company realize its dream of fully autonomous driving. Next is the cortex. This is Tesla’s other huge AI training super cluster built at Tesla HQ in Austin to help solve real-world AI. On Tesla’s fourth quarter shareholder deck, the company shared updates for cortex, but there was nothing in Dojo.
The latest update we saw was the phrase “quiet. The machines are learning,” indicating that some kind of computing cluster came from the Tesla AI X account. It’s not clear whether it’s a dojo or a cortex.
Elon’s regriolitisation
According to Jonas’ memo, investors are looking for “signs that Tesla CEOs have repeatedly made Tesla’s efforts to make politically oriented efforts.”
Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst and another Tesla Bull, said in a note on Sunday that Musk was facing a “code red situation.” He reiterated his previous stance that Musk should distance himself from the Doge so that Teslabrand would stop to become political topics.