Many consumers will pay more for air conditioning this summer as President Donald Trump’s trade war clashes with existing price pressures, coolant shortages and scorbing forecasts that are planning to raise utility bills.
“We’re looking forward to seeing you in the future,” said Scott Shelton, owner of Charlotte Comfort System in North Carolina.
Heating, ventilation and air conditioning contractors say they have weathered higher costs since their post-Covid recovery for everything from labor and raw materials to newly mandated refrigerants. HVAC companies say it’s impossible to avoid passing at least high costs to customers, as they have a deep supply chain in countries facing new tariffs.
Shelton estimates that his costs have already risen 80% since the pandemic.
It’s a sad time when we need a new HVAC system.
Scott Shelton, owner of Charlotte Comfort System in Charlotte, North Carolina
“It affects the lower and middle classes more than we’ve seen in 38 years of experience in the industry,” he said of the ongoing and expected increase in costs.
The US manufacturer has been billed by HVAC, and the refrigerated equipment remains near the record highs that hit last summer, with Trump winning reelection and some contractors hoping his taxes will boost them.
Idine Mail, which manages heating and cooling at Denver-based Unicorad, should accept components that cost $1,000 in March. “It costs $1,100 right now,” he said. “In September, the same ones cost between $1,300 and $1,400.”
Adding to the expected squeeze is a sharper utility bill for many households. U.S. home electricity costs are projected to average $784 this summer, up 6.2% from last season, at the highest level in 12 years, the National Energy Assistance Supervisors Association (NEADA) said Thursday. Early heat waves have already burned the Southwest and Texas this week, recording Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Austin, Houston and Dallas Break May.
Mehr has expressed concern about this summer. “We stock up like crazy to keep prices as low as possible,” he said, but his inventory is “already rapidly declining.”
Some top air conditioner manufacturers are responding to the Trump administration’s push for a repurpose, with carriers announced a $1 billion five-year investment to expand domestic production on Tuesday. Analysts say the HVAC sector is relatively well positioned to handle tariffs that include steel and aluminum. However, the industry still relies heavily on overseas suppliers, and contractors say many American importers are already curbing shipments.
The US imported more than $15 billion in air conditioners last year, according to the Economic Complexity Observatory. Mexico and China are currently facing double-digit blanket tariffs – account for the largest shares of US spending on AC imports, accounting for 50% in Mexico and 19% in China. Analysts estimate that less than half of Mexico-made HVAC equipment is in compliance with US-Canada trade agreements. This is the first term brokered by Trump spares from the 25% tariff that he placed on Mexican and Canadian goods second.
Many suppliers who usually buy on a 90-day schedule had already suspended orders by the time the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff suspension on Monday, Mehr said.
“In the best case scenario, you’ll have a Covid style type of thing that they’ll have to wait a few months to get something,” he predicted.
A key factor is the industry-wide shortage of the R-454B, a greener coolant that regulators have begun to need under Trump’s bipartisan measures signed in 2020. Mehr was hoping that the major manufacturers would ship new heat pumps using the R-454B in the mid-APRIL period.
We stock up like crazy to keep prices as low as possible.
Aydin Mehr, Unicolorado Heating and Cooling Total Manger, Denver
He foresees the worst refrigerant shortages will continue until mid-June or early July, mitigating the possibility that budgetary supply for intermediate AC units could begin to decline.
These fears may not exist nationwide or at all, but coolant crunches have already raised costs and delayed installations as manufacturers increase prices. Appliance giant Honeywell last month announced an additional 42% charge for the R-454B. This cited “increasing costs and raw materials and the cumulative effect of raw materials” amid strong demand.
Some HVAC contractors have even accused manufacturers of using supply chain destruction in price gages. Burton James, president and CEO of American air conditioner contractors, announced that “cooling system manufacturers had announced the tariff-related price rise “before it became a reality” as “before it became a reality.” “The whole industry continues to test waters around consumer breaking points, and now we haven’t found it.”
The Air Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute called the allegations “aggressive.” Members of the manufacturing trade group have their own concerns about the uncertainty brought about by “On/Out Off Again Tarifs,” spokesman Francis Dietz said in a statement. “It’s far from raising prices to use rates as a cover, and manufacturers get out of the way to minimize economic impact and keep their products affordable.”
Home Depot admitted to a “fluid environment” but declined to comment on certain product categories, but Lowe did not respond to a request for comment. Both home improvement giants are reporting revenue for next week.
A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
The crunch has now been expected to be above average temperatures in most of the US this summer after 2024 became a record summer.
The National Weather Service predicts excessive heat to generate hotspots from Maryland to Maine and Oregon to Texas. Utah, Nevada, Colorado and parts of New Mexico are most likely to see hotter than average days in the next three months. As extreme fevers have worsened with more frequent climate change, researchers say heat-related deaths in the United States have more than doubled in recent decades.
This year there could be less federal assistance to help households maintain their homes at safe temperatures.
Shortly after hitting all staff in the low-income Housing Energy Assistance Program, Trump proposed a budget that cuts the initiative’s $4 billion funding to zero. Liheap was founded in 1981 to help struggling families cover the heating of their homes and later cover cooling costs, including the installation of AC. But it’s tense by what’s called chronic funding shortages, which have proponents surge in demand for summer bailouts.
Neada, who represents state authorities paying for Liheap’s aid, estimates that households facing utility delinquent payouts are owing the most cumulative $21 billion in four years.
“Not affordable cooling is available for many people to risk heat strokes and other health effects associated with rising temperatures,” Neada executive director Mark Wolf said in a statement.