Bitcoin (Cryptography: BTC) It surged to an all-time high of $106,182 per coin in January. The fourth Bitcoin was firmly in half in the rearview mirror, and it looked ready to surge like it was in 2020 and 2017 with a more crypto-friendly regime in the White House.
But it didn’t work that way. Bitcoin has dropped to $79,200 as of this writing on April 8th. This is a 25% price crash that will raise your hair, far outweigh the S&P 500. (snpindex: ^gspc) Stock market trackers fell by 19%.
Is this the start of a three-year crypto winter like we saw after the peak of 2017, or is it a temporary pullback like in the spring of 2021? No one knows for sure, but here’s how we look at the situation with Bitcoin today.
Bitcoin has a long history of extreme volatility. The oldest cryptocurrency shook from $785 per coin in early 2017 to $19,345 in mid-December. About a year later, 2018 ended at $3,880 per coin. The S&P 500 scored a modest 12% over that period. This looks like a horizon in comparison.
Bitcoin price data by YCHARTS
Recent price fluctuations have actually been rather modest from a historical perspective. The daily standard deviation of cryptocurrency was around 2.7% in 2025. This volatility measurement was twice the size of 2017 and was astronomical in 2009 and 2010.
Data Source: Coin Codex. Charts by the author.
Although past performance does not guarantee future results, this volatility chart shows some useful trends.
Bitcoin volatility tends to rise and fall over the same four-year cycle as the underlying half-harving process. Things settle down during each code winter, followed by sharp spikes in the years after each half of the event. As a reminder, the fourth half was held in April 2024. Bitcoin could be paid in 2025 for a much more volatile price chart.
The current age-type volatility is comparable to last year’s volatility. This was one of the most whimsical years in Bitcoin history. Changes in prices over the past week or so should increase your volatility rating, especially if Wilder changes.
This chart reduces the price as a single value and reduces the price. However, Bitcoin’s cyclical trends come in a certain mountain-like shape, allowing you to slowly return to a slightly higher plateau than the previous cycle, following a game-changing jump.
The introduction of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) appeared to have disrupt the standard pattern a bit, preloading Bitcoin charts in the spring of 2024 with a short-lived price rise. Aside from these events until 2025, major cryptocurrencies are preparing for a normal price rise in the second year of each half of the turn.
The story continues
You didn’t come here for math, so you can’t blame you for making Bitcoin chart patterns awkward. Technical analysis is more of a performance art than financial science, and the chart-based meditation above is an example of that nonsense.
Again, I’m based on more than a wave of basic chart discussions. There is a reason for Bitcoin’s four-year circularity, as the economic model of producing more coins continues to change at that pace. Every turn of the wheel is unique as the economic environment around the crypto sector continues to change. Still, half of the events make a real difference – it’s difficult to predict with pinpoint accuracy, but still useful as a guide’s rule of thumb.
And after all that, I’m sure Bitcoin will recover from recent price cuts. It could take several months and it could be even more painful in the future, but if the tide doesn’t change in the second half of 2025, we’ll be shocked.
This digital currency was designed as a safe long-term storage facility for monetary value, also known as wealth. strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) Chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor will talk your ears about the topic and turn all the stones possible to buy more bitcoin for the company. One of my college kids just started their investment journey with an early Roth IRA account, with about 2% of their portfolio holding the popular Bitcoin ETF.
I’m not a Saylor-style Bitcoin Maximalist, but a small amount of exposure to the original cryptoname seems to suit most investors. Beating below $85,000 per coin is a serious discount from just three months ago, making cryptocurrency about 25% interesting.
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Anders Bylund has a Bitcoin position. Motley Fool has a position and recommends Bitcoin. Motley Fools have a disclosure policy.
Should I buy Bitcoin for less than $85,000? Originally published by The Motley Fool
