The current market dynamics of Bitcoin are shaped by conflicting narratives, with long-term holders still being locked in despite claims of surrender. On-chain Cryptoquant, long-term Bitcoin holder data shows no significant sales pressure. The inactive supply shift index (ISSI) strengthens this, indicating that Bitcoin has remained relatively stable for many years, defiing market sentiment that suggests holders are panicking. Onchained emphasizes that these stories often lack on-chain validation, instead being driven by market speculation, and advises investors to trust data surrounding sensational claims.
Meanwhile, analysts have questioned long-standing market beliefs, including the relevance of a four-year Bitcoin cycle linking price movements to cryptocurrency harving events. Michael Van de Poppe of MN Trading Capital suggests that this cycle may no longer be applied, suggesting that the Altcoins follow a different, longer cycle. Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investment shared a similar view, saying changes in US government policies could change the predictable four-year cycle and could create a new market stage that could last more than a decade.
However, some analysts are predicting the end of the current Bitcoin Bull Market. Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju has expressed concern and said that Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics marked the start of the bear market, predicting bear or sideways price action for six to 12 months. Joe pointed out fresh liquidity and the drying of new whales selling bitcoin at low prices as a contribution factor.
These different opinions indicate the tension between data and market sentiment. Despite the bearish signal, long-term holders are resilient and continue to hold Bitcoin. This contrasts with the broader narrative of the decline in value of Bitcoin, which is influenced by the fears and macroeconomic factors of the trade war. Analysts warn that the data will be shaken up by misleading stories that lack the support they are endorsed. They emphasize that they are still the most reliable indicator of market trends in verifiable on-chain data, and advise investors to focus on data rather than speculative headlines.