From tariffs to the Ukrainian War, US President Donald Trump has chosen diplomatic conflicts with leaders around the world since taking office on January 20th.
But while Trump surrounded his militant approach as “America No. 1,” many of these leaders also benefited politically.
The data suggests that leaders who are considered to be actively negotiating with Trump without much compromise are gaining in polls in terms of recognition assessment. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has enjoyed the highest recognition rate of Mexican heads of state since 1985. Canada’s ruling Liberal Party has closed a major gap with the opposition Conservative Party, which is leading the poll ahead of the national election. And they’re not the only ones.
But how much does these polls benefit because of how these leaders are dealing with Trump? Are you playing around with other factors? There’s what the numbers look like and what analysts are going on.
Canada and Justin Trudeau
Since 2015, Canadian Justin Trudeau has resigned on March 9th, making the way for economist Mark Carney (Liberals), who was sworn in as Canadian prime minister last Friday.
Trudeau was pressured to resign for months before eventually resigning amid rising costs of living, increased fights within the party, resignation from the cabinet and increased questions about immigration policies.
That pressure grew as Trump threatened heavy tariffs against Canada after he was elected. Trudeau’s longtime vice minister, Krishstia Freeland, resigned in mid-December 2024 amid differences of opinion on how to deal with Trump.
Trudeau initially refused to respond to a string of barbs from Trump. Trump has repeatedly said Canada is in the US’s 51st state, and has said he is laughing at the Canadian Prime Minister as “governor.” Instead, Trudeau appointed “Emperor Fentanyl” to tackle the issue as Trump accused Canada of allowing fentanyl to enter the United States through the border.
But as Trump – after postponing tariffs for a month in Canada, Trudeau finally took a more robust public stance as he implemented a threat to most Canada’s exports in early March.
“Canadians are reasonable and we are polite.
What does the Federal Government of Canada show?
Some polls found that conservatives were consistently leading by substantial margins throughout 2024 under their leader Pierre Polyabere, but the liberals jumped to polls since February 2025, filling the gap significantly.
The average poll by the Canadian Broadcasting Agency (CBC) shows that conservatives led the Liberal Party by 24 percentage points in early January. The gap had shrunk to just 5.5 percentage points as of March 17th, with conservatives at 38.9% and liberals at 33.4%.
“This is the first time, especially for a government that has been in power for nearly a decade, that has returned from a 25-point deficit, at least in Canada’s polls this century.”
What explains this?
Liberals who bridge such a big gap in polls can be explained by a combination of factors, experts say.
Factors include “Justin Trudeau’s departure, Mark Carney’s arrival, tariff attacks by Donald Trump, and discomfort with Conservative leader Pierre Polyern.”
338 Fournier of Canada explained that many Canadian lawmakers are putting pressure on Trudeau to resign for several months. “When (Trudeau) finally announced he would resign in early January, Trump was soon eased and began threatening his tariffs.
“More than tariffs, it was a threat to Canada’s sovereignty,” Fournier said, referring to Trump’s call for Canada to become part of the United States.
Fournier also argued that Polyeive’s approach to politics, and the similarities that some voters point to in Trump’s style, could be at work against him.
“Poirierble uses the same style, language and tactics as Trump,” Fournier said. “As Trump threatens Canada, many swing voters are turning to conservative leaders, thinking, “What direction we want to be in this country?”
He added that it is not only conservative voters who switch sides, but also voters who usually vote for other parties. “It seems like Carney can reach people from across the spectrum,” he said.
Mexico and Claudia Sinbaum
Sinbaum was sworn in as Mexico’s first female president on October 1, 2024, and was taken over from her predecessor and mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. In response to Trump’s tariff threat, Sinbaum deployed 10,000 National Guard personnel at the US-Mexico border to curb unregulated immigration.
Trump initially ordered a 25% tariff on all imports in Mexico and Canada, but these were delayed by a month in negotiations with Sinbaum and Trudeau.
A few days before the tariffs were ultimately imposed, Trump announced further delays for several products from Mexico, as well as from Canada to April 2nd. These were products that fall under the US-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a free trade agreement. Trump wrote on his true social platform that after speaking to Sinbaum, he made the decision “respectfully” for her.
What does Sheinbaum’s approval rating show?
Data from various Mexican pollers show that Sinbaum has enjoyed a high recognition rating since taking office. A Buendia Y Marquez poll shows that 80% of respondents approved the president in mid-February.
A vote by the entire Mexican national newspaper El Financiero shows that 85% of respondents who approved Sheinbaum in February have been shown. This is the highest approval rating achieved in the country in the last 30 years, Erfian Cielo reported. Sheinbaum’s approval rate was 70% in October and has been steadily rising since then.
Mexicans have mixed feelings about how Shanebaum treats Trump, according to data from Elle Finance in February. Sixty percent of respondents said they believe she is doing a good or very good job dealing with Trump’s deportation, while 55% of respondents approved handling of Sinbaum’s tariffs.
However, when asked how they viewed the state of the relationship between Shainbaum’s government and the Trump administration, 38% of respondents said they believed it was good or very good, while 45% of respondents said it was bad or very bad.
In other words, polls suggest that Mexicans believe they are strained in relationships, but they support Sinbaum to handle it well.
What explains this?
In some respects, Sinbaum inherited the recognition rating from his predecessor, Lopez Obrador, Sandra Peregrini, a senior analyst in Latin America and the Caribbean, from his independent, nonprofit armed conflict location and event data (Ecled).
Lopez Obrador took office in December 2018, and by February 2019 the approval rate was 83%. Shainbaum belonged to his Morena Party and was his hand-selected successor.
“Despite the pandemic, economic stagnation and security challenges, Lopez Obrador has remained popular throughout his six-year term and has earned the nickname “President Teflon.” Lopez Obrador received a rating of about 74% near the end of his term in September 2024.
The consistently high recognition rating of Morena Party leaders comes from their social welfare policies launched by Lopez Obrador and continued by Shenbaum. This includes the Sembrando Vida programme aimed at promoting planting and eliminating poverty.
However, Zissis told Al Jazeera that Sheinbaum’s handling of ties with the Trump administration was also a “contribution factor” to her high recognition rating.
“As the country faces tariff threats and military action from Washington, Mexicans are gathering around their leaders and the country,” Ziss said.
“Although other leaders respond quickly to the threat of tariffs and take mutual action, she has used a patient approach that appears to be effective given the Trump administration’s decision to delay tariffs, bringing global and domestic accolades for the country’s first female president.”
Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Since February, Trump and Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky have found themselves caught up in a tense interaction. In a social media post last month, Trump described Zelensky as a “no-election dictator” and claimed Zelensky’s approval rate was 4%. Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine in 2019.
Tension came to mind when Zelensky visited the White House on February 28th. At a meeting in the oval office, Trump and his vice president JD Vance publicly accused Zelenkie of not fully grateful for the US support of Ukraine. Shortly afterwards, Trump stopped sharing military aid and intelligence news to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy maintained his tone of reconciliation with Trump, expressing his appreciation for the US support, and then emphasized that he was ready for peace talks. Since then, the US and Ukraine have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire plan that Russia has yet to accept. The United States has recovered stagnant military aid and intelligence.
What do the numbers indicate?
A survey conducted by Kyiv International Sociology (KIIS) showed that 67% of respondents in March trusted Zelenskyy after a clash with Trump. This was the 10-point jump since February, when 57% of respondents said they trusted him.
Why is this happening?
“Ukrainians recognize the rhetoric of the new US administration as an attack on Ukraine as a whole and on all Ukrainians,” KIIS executive director Anton Furschetsky said in a statement reported by Reuters on March 7.
Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron
In February, US and Russian representatives met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine. This came just after Trump said the US would not provide security guarantees to Ukraine. He said Europe needs to step up from this perspective.
British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron stepped up, with both leaders visiting Trump and Macron and hosting an emergency summit with other European leaders. Starmer then held another meeting with his European allies, and announced a “Joyed Union” that invited Zelensky to devise a peace plan to present to the United States. He has since suggested that the coalition may provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement with Russia.
What do the numbers indicate?
Priorities, who had returned home less than a year after taking office and experienced a slump in approval, have seen his approval ratings rise over the past month. According to YouGov, his popularity is the highest since taking office in early July, growing from 22% to 27%.
Macron’s approval rate rose from 17% in February to 27% in March, according to Ipsos.
Why is this happening?
Analysts told Al Jazeera that prioritization approval rates have increased due to their ability to navigate difficult situations.
“He’s good at facing the wind when there’s bad news and tough choices he faces,” John Curtis, a political professor at Strathslide University, told Al Jazeera.
When asked if there was any improvement in his approval rating with Trump, a senior fellow at the National Center for Social Studies, he said, “The timing is nothing going on on the domestic front.”
In France, the international crisis, including the Ukrainian War, is one of the top three concerns of 33% of IPSOS survey respondents, suggesting that Macron and his apparently clever handling of Trump may have helped him.