Data from Amberdata for the last month of February shows that at the time of writing Tuesday, volatility was up to an average age of 82. This is higher than all other weekdays. March 2025 has been the most volatile month on average since early 2024, showing an average of 67 volatility.
Volatility is well above 50, with Bitcoin dropping by 30% from an all-time high, with the annual realised volatility approaching 70 for a month.
There has been a similar surge in Bitcoin volatility in the past. There was an extreme shaking in March 2024 after Bitcoin hit a record high of $73,000.
Additionally, in August 2024, Bitcoin saw volatile price action as it uncovered the loose end of the carry trade in yen, strengthening the theme of meaningful price action surrounding the macroeconomic release.
Analyst Ali Martinez believes Bitcoin is ripe for the bear market, according to some metrics. The flow pulse between net spots and Enkenji, a metric that monitors orders for derivative exchanges, suggests a change in macrotrends.
Furthermore, the MVRV ratio is currently negative, indicating that Bitcoin’s momentum has evolved from positive to negative.
Martinez points out that key support areas exist between $66,000 and $69,000, and says that the next big move for Bitcoin depends on when these levels are held or broken.
caption:The hot supply of Bitcoin has declined, reducing short-term trading and speculation as investors hold BTC longer. Source: GlassNode
Additionally, GlassNode reports that Bitcoin’s “hot supply” (coins held for less than a week) has declined over the past few months, suggesting less short-term trading and speculation. This indicates that investors are moving to hold BTC longer, and could indicate a shift in market sentiment towards a more cautious or long-term oriented outlook.
With the changing market structure of Bitcoin, studying daily volatility trends may be essential to guide investors’ behavior and determine market participation approaches.