USA TODAY Sports released its premature 2024 season Top 25 last January, in a narrow window between two major events. The University of Michigan defeated Washington for the national championship, and Nick Saban retired from the University of Alabama.
That’s why we rank the Crimson Tide No. 2 in early starters. Why take on the greatest coach in college football history? As for the defending national champions, former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has yet to officially commit to the Los Angeles Chargers. Starting quarterback JJ McCarthy was just days away from declaring for the NFL Draft. We ranked the Wolverines third in our predictions, which also makes sense.
At least I have an excuse for those two mistakes. Looking back at the premature list, we see some big errors in judgment, from over-optimism on teams like LSU, Oklahoma and Virginia Tech to general underestimation of the Big Ten.
The top 25 for the all-too-early 2025 season will be announced after Monday night’s championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State. Before we look ahead, let’s take a look back at last year’s list and see which teams got it right, which teams got it wrong, and which teams got it very wrong.
nailed it!
No. 4 Texas (13-3)
This is right around the corner from where Texas will compete in the final U.S. LBM Coaches Poll after finishing second in the SEC and winning two College Football Playoff games before losing to the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns made the most of a relatively easy schedule, but the team lived up to expectations by reaching the national semifinals for the second year in a row.
Three keys: Breaking down the Ohio State vs. Notre Dame title game.
Burying Michigan State: Ohio State is one win away from rewriting the narrative.
No. 11 Clemson (10-4)
Clemson won the ACC as expected, but lost to Texas in the opening round of the playoffs. It wasn’t a particularly great season for the Tigers. They lost badly to Georgia in the opener and then lost to Louisville at home. However, Miami lost to Syracuse in Week 14 and managed to advance to the conference title game after defeating SMU to take the lead.
No. 23 Memphis (11-2)
Memphis ultimately wasn’t the best team in the Group of 5 – Boise State wasn’t ranked – but after finishing the year with wins over Tulane and West Virginia, it was ranked in the coaches poll. It will fall within this range.
To be honest, it’s not bad
No. 1 Georgia (11-3)
Well, Georgia never regained the national championship, never won a playoff game, and ended the year with a loss to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. But the Bulldogs won the SEC twice, defeating Texas along the way, and could have gone even deeper into the playoffs had starting quarterback Carson Beck not suffered a season-ending injury in the conference championship game. I don’t know.
No. 6 Notre Dame Cathedral (14-1*)
We’re pretty much right about the Fighting Irish, and with the offseason additions of offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and quarterback Riley Leonard, the Fighting Irish are a strong playoff contender. It became one of the They suffered a blowout loss to Northern Illinois, but haven’t lost since and are one win away from their first title since 1988.
No. 7 Oregon (13-1)
Good news. Oregon State was picked to finish second in the Big Ten behind Michigan State. The Ducks finished the regular season as the only undefeated team in the bowl division. The bad news: The team that would eventually win the Big Ten languished as low as seventh and vastly underestimated how strong the Ducks and the league would be in 2024.
No. 12 Tennessee (10-3)
As for the final ranking of volunteers, this is mostly accurate. However, the top 25 ranks Tennessee as the seventh-best team in the SEC, making this an outlier. The Voluntese made it to the playoffs by defeating Alabama, but failed to make an impression against Ohio State.
No. 14 Missouri (10-3)
I was a little too bullish on Missouri. The Tigers’ only win against a Power Four opponent with seven or more wins was against Iowa in the Music City Bowl. They overcame close games at home against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Oklahoma to win by double digits.
It’s close, but still off the mark.
No. 5 Mississippi (10-3)
Incredible losses to Kentucky and Florida cost the Rebels a playoff berth and a chance for their first top-five finish in more than 60 years. But our hearts were in the right place. When everything was going well, this might have been the best team in the SEC. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen often enough.
9. Ohio State University (14-2*)
The Buckeyes and Penn State were vastly underrated as part of their overall misfire against the Big Ten. But Ohio State finished the regular season ranked No. 7 in the coaches poll before making a dominant run heading into Monday’s championship game.
No. 15 Penn State (13-3)
This was about a 10-spot mistake for the Nittany Lions. “If all goes well, Penn State will win the Big Ten or at least earn a playoff berth,” we wrote, pointing to the health of the offensive line and Drew Allard taking a step forward under new offensive coordinator. I questioned whether to do so. Andy Kotelnicki.
No. 24 Iowa (8-5)
Iowa lost to Missouri in the bowl, so it didn’t make it into the top 25. However, the Hawkeyes lost by a point to Iowa State and by a field goal to UCLA, which justified this position and almost factored it into the playoff picture.
I have an excuse
No. 2 Alabama (9-4)
Alabama has fallen in the SEC standings under first-year coach Karen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide’s season was defined by losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma in the regular season and to Michigan in the LeliaQuest Bowl.
No. 3 Michigan (8-5)
With the loss of Harbaugh, McCarthy, and a number of notable contributors in the championship game, Michigan’s chances of a rematch under new coach Sherone Moore are doomed. However, the Wolverines regained momentum with wins over Ohio State and the Tide and could move into the top 25.
No. 17 Washington (6-7)
Given the talent drain after the loss to Michigan, we should have been more cynical about Washington’s chances of success as a new member of the Big Ten. In our defense, DeBoer was expected to return to the Huskies in 2024. We wrote, “Given his track record, it seems highly unlikely that Washington will disappear from the national map.”
No. 22 Kansas (5-7)
Kansas, one of a whopping nine teams to finish undefeated in the early Top 25, lost five by single digits and won three straight in ranked play in November. In other words, the Jayhawks were very close to being the team we expected them to be last January.
What were we thinking?
No. 8 Oklahoma (6-7)
This is where things start to get worse. As for Oklahoma, we said the play of quarterback Jackson-Arnold and the offensive line “will determine whether this team makes the playoff bracket.” Neither team was successful and the offense was a disaster. Things got even worse when we saw Texas going all out in the SEC. The only saving grace was the loss to Alabama, which extended the Sooners’ bowl streak to 26 straight seasons, but the result was a crushing loss to Navy.
No.10 LSU (9-4)
LSU, which was touted as a strong contender in Brian Kelly’s third year with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier replacing Jaden Daniels, lost in the opener to Southern California, then lost to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida. They lost three games in a row and were out of the playoffs.
No. 16 Utah (5-7)
Injuries have played a role, especially at quarterback, with Cam Rising expected to return to full health. That didn’t happen. And after starting 4-0, the Utes lost seven straight, finishing the season tied for second-last in the Big 12 and suffering the program’s first losing streak since 2013.
No. 19 Southern California (7-6)
USC struggled to find its rhythm as a new member of the Big Ten, barely making the postseason after losing close games to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington. I’m going to break the habit of overrating the Trojans with a premature list for 2025.
No. 21 North Carolina State University (6-7)
Although overshadowed by other ACC failures like Florida State, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State, NC State has to be one of the most disappointing schools in the Power 4. Plagued by injury issues, the Wolfpack lost an early game to Tennessee, losing four games by just one possession.
No. 25 Virginia Tech (6-7)
The breakthroughs hoped for in this program did not materialize. At least the Hokies were competitive in each of their losses, with only the Mayo Bowl loss to Minnesota by more than 10 points.
we were really messed up
No. 13 Arizona (4-8)
Coach Jed Fisch eventually replaced DeBoer in Washington. But at the time, Arizona was seen as an early favorite to win the remade Big 12. Coach changes and player departures also played a role, but for the Wildcats, there was a clear departure.
No. 20 Oklahoma State University (3-9)
Oklahoma State went undefeated in non-conference play, but then went winless and finished last in the Big 12, nearing the end of head coach Mike Gundy’s tenure. Don’t expect the Cowboys to clear their doubts in the future.
florida department
No. 18 Florida State University (2-10)
The Seminoles are taking classes alone. Do we get any credit for them coming in at #18, lower than most of the premature lists? no. FSU will go down not only as the biggest disappointment of the 2024 season, but also as one of the biggest underdogs of this era.