TAIPEI, Taiwan – With US President Donald Trump carrying out the prospects for a trade deal with China, experts say Beijing is unlikely to make the first move, and even demanding prerequisites before coming to the negotiation table.
Trump said he expects a 145% tariff on China to “really fall,” but expects a lower rate to depend on Beijing’s next step.
“We’re going to do fair deals with China,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday in his latest remarks, stirring hopes of breaking the tension between the sides.
But given its high standoff interests with the US, China “can’t afford to be the first move because it cannot be seen as surrender to the Trump administration’s pressure campaign,” William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst with International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
“As a result, China will firmly support its current position until the US government makes some credible concessions that allow Beijing to come to the negotiation table and consider claiming victory.”
Beijing could be seen as a sign that “digging the heels” is working, Yang said.
Trump said Wednesday that his administration is elaborately “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side, but we and Chinese officials have not officially announced the commencement of trade negotiations.
On Thursday, China’s Commerce Department rejected Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks about trade going on between the sides.
“The claims regarding progress in economic negotiations between China and the US are unfounded and virtually unfounded,” his Yadong, a spokesman for the province, told a press conference.
China has said the door is “widely open” to discussions, but has argued that it will not avoid fighting the US if necessary.
In contrast to Trump’s Offcuff’s remarks and false statements about his possible relief from tariffs, Beijing’s message, which has been primarily communicated through the Commerce and Foreign Ministry, is strictly controlled and consistent.
“I think China has an advantage, at least on the surface,” Zhiwu Chen, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong’s business school, told Al Jazeera.
“It’s more controlled, but President Trump and Secretary Bescent have signaled and done that it helps to weaken their hands,” Chen said of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent.
“I think this statement shows that he is really worried and panic, but China has been pretty quiet and calm,” Chen added.
China slapped US exports with 125% tariffs to respond to Trump’s trade salvo, and announced various other “measures” such as restrictions on rare earth exports and the number of Chinese Hollywood movie releases.
As tensions continue to widen, Beijing could halt cooperation on issues such as control of fentanyl exports.
In theory, dumping more than $7600 billion on US government debt could cause pain in the US economy. This is what economists think is thinking, given the serious impact on the Chinese economy.
Unlike Trump, who prefers to negotiate face-to-face talks with world leaders, Beijing would like to engage in a preliminary meeting before a meeting between China’s Nationwide President Xi Jinping and the US President, said Tom Nunlist, associate director of technology and data policy at China’s Trivium.
“They’re going to try to secure a deal before the top leader meets to confirm it. Reaching directly to Trump may seem like XI has an insight into our pressures, and it also puts failure at risk,” Nunlist told Al Jazeera.
“Generally speaking, the US is an invader here, and China is calibrating that it is forcing its response, but avoiding escalation,” Nunlist said.
Analysts say the debate is likely to address broader concerns than mere tariffs.
According to Dinli Shen, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, potential areas of concession include “technology export restrictions and Taiwan.”
According to Marina Chang, an associate professor at the University of Sydney’s Australia and China Relations Institute, there could be “long-standing complaints about how China is being treated within the global system.”
“In reality, it means that we don’t compromise on the four important “red lines” of public humiliation, one-sided ultimate, and four important “red lines.” Taiwan, issues related to democracy and human rights, the political system of China, and the rights of development,” Zhang told Al Jazeera.
Zhang said US export restrictions on critical technologies could be on the agenda and could be on the blacklist of Chinese tech companies such as Huawei and Chinese chip maker Smic.
“China could also drive relaxation of investment screening rules, particularly in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. Another question is escalation to a level of Taiwan,” she said.
“Beijing doesn’t expect complete concessions, but it will welcome a little obvious political signal from Washington, including high-level official visits and restrictions on arms sales.”
For Beijing, the wait may be worth it if it means achieving some of its long-term goals, said Yang of the International Crisis Group.
“This is more than just China’s pure trade negotiations at this point. This tariff standoff trajectory is seen as a precursor to how bilateral relations with the US will develop over the next four years,” he said.
“Beijing would hope that the Trump administration will make the first move to reduce tariffs imposed on imported Chinese products. The potential level of tariff reductions could potentially determine the Chinese government’s willingness to launch high-level trade negotiations with the Trump administration.”