Canadian voters will be taking part in the poll on Monday amid one of the most dramatic campaign transformations of years.
A January poll showed conservatives were heading for certain victories, while liberals have since narrowed competition recently, but have since turned the race upside down. Early voting shattered the record with over 7.3 million votes.
Frank Graves, president and founder of Canadian voting company Ekos Research, said: “That would have been completely unthinkable at the beginning of this year.”
Last fall, conservative leader Pierre Polyervre, who was considered a Trump-like figure, was taken away by rising populism in response to the affordable crisis and inflation under longtime Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
However, the tide changed when Trudeau resigned earlier this year on January 6th, paving the way for new liberal leadership, and President Donald Trump entered his second term, threatening Canada’s economy in a trade war. Suddenly, Canadians opposed their national identity and Trumpism.
Populism – The belief that we must regain power from corrupt elites and return it to people led to the Brexit referendum in the UK and the election of Donald Trump in the US. Graves co-authored a paper that found 34% of Canadians had populist outlook. This election saw Canadians re-enter Trump and said, “Would you like to go this populist path?”
If the liberals win, that means Canadian voters are standing up to Trump, he said. “It’s definitely a responsibilities for Trump and the populism they’re showing in his administration.”
How did the race change?
Changes in US leadership have had a dramatic impact on their Northern neighbors.
Earlier this year, Polyeble enjoyed a challenging popularity. The election will likely be called in 2025 and face Trudeau, who has been in power for nine years and has been deeply unpopular.
The pandemic, incumbent leaders of Western democracy faced tough elections due to pandemic restrictions, rising inflation that reached 8.1% in June 2022, affordable housing and political polarization. The same was true for Trudeau.
Poilliebre was considered a Canadian Trump-like figure. He tapped on “Northern Populism,” which has a lower voter share than the US, but it was still a powerful force, Graves said. Poilliebre has made Trudeau his punch bag, aiming for his unpopular policies, like the Canadian carbon tax.
Trudeau’s leadership issues came to mind when Finance Minister Christia Freeland suddenly resigned. In the letter, she wrote that Trudeau has not taken on the next Trump “America First” economic nationalism and high tariff challenges. Trudeau had no choice but to resign, but it sparked a liberal leadership race.
In the Canadian political system, Trudeau’s resignation meant that the Liberals were still in power, but the party had to select a new leader to run in this year’s election.
While the party was holding a leadership race, Trump took office and promptly declared a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. At the same time, Trump repeatedly commented that Canada should become the 51st state.
Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said the Liberal Party leadership race took place within weeks of Trump’s competition, and the turn of events helped drive the party “beyond the unpopularity of the Trudeau government.”
On March 9, the Liberal Party elected Mark Kearney as Canada’s sovereignty and economy are under attack. Mark Carney was perceived to become smart in the economy after serving as Bank of Canada governor during the 2008 financial crisis and Bank of England governor during Brexit and the pandemic.
Kearney, who was elected in the landslide, led his popularity by calling the snap election on April 28, the shortest election period allowed by law.
Canada is facing a Trump trade war
Trump’s sudden tariffs have put Canada’s economy in uncertainty. More than 70% of the country’s exports, including auto parts, wood, agricultural products, steel, and more, are sent to the United States.
“We are very dependent on the United States,” said Silvanus Kwak Afesorgbolu, an associate professor at the University of Guelph, Ontario. “Our economy is heavily dependent on the US economy, so there is a possibility of a major economic recession in Canada.”
In March, Algoma Steel, Canada’s second-largest steel producer, announced a layoff as a direct result of Trump’s tariffs. The steel factory was a major employer in a tight-knit city in Sioux St. Marie, Ontario, and the layoffs were deeply felt throughout the community. The Sault St. Marie Algoma district has been held by the Liberal Party since 2015, but last year, steel workers dressed up Trudeau at a campaign stop. Since then, both Poilierble and Kearney have stopped their campaign in the city.
Afesorgbor said voters, like steel workers, are likely to consider which parties offer better economic cushions in the event of unemployment. They might ask themselves, “If there’s an economic crisis due to Trump’s tariffs, who’s in a good position to resolve it?” He said it depends on how voters perceive their party leaders’ ability to negotiate with Trump.
Afesorgbor said Canadian voters would choose a party they believe is “very special” about the economy and can handle the recession and Trump’s trade war. He said voters may recognize Mark Carney as a better candidate because of his record in the banking sector. “It changed a lot of support for the Liberal Party.”
Liberals lead
Trump’s policy on Canada has more than just an economic impact. For many Canadians, it felt like a threat to their national identity.
“(Taxes) were considered an ally that abandoned Canada, so I’m going to add President Trump’s comments on making Canada a 51st state. So unlike what I saw in my lifetime, it sparked a wave of Canadian nationalism,” Young told Al Jazeera.
For Poilievre, the outlook wasn’t that clear. “It essentially changed the terrain politically because a significant percentage of voters suspect (polyef) is similar to Trump,” she said.
The cemetery saw “deep change” in opinion polls. In February, liberals and conservatives were essentially linked, but in early March, the grave said, “How do Canadians deal with this existential threat coming from Donald Trump?”
The surge in public pride has pushed voters towards Kearney. Kearney was seen as a candidate who could lead Canada through the chaos that Trump caused. “The Liberal Party has planted our flag and is now a place where we say, ‘We’ll continue to be a sovereign nation,'” Graves said.
Canadian voters are set to rebel Trump
If the liberals win as predicted, it shows Canada is portraying its own path to Trump compared to Trump.
Graves said Americans should pay attention to Canadian elections. The Canadian election raised similar questions about what path to follow within identity and swelling populism. Instead of asking which party to elect, Graves said Canadians were asking, “What kind of country do we want to be?”
“Under that question, do you want to follow this populist path? I think Canadians are pausing and looking and saying, ‘No, that’s not the place they want to take our country away,'” Graves said.
Graves pointed out that it is rare for Western democracy to go against rising populism. “Americans may find this as a possible prescription for their future if they don’t want to continue their path,” he said.