In his inaugural speech, United States President Donald Trump said the “proudest legacy” of his presidency is that of “peacemakers and unifiers.”
“We measure success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end,” he said on Monday, before referring to the release of the first Israeli prisoners of war from Gaza. Before, early political victories.
Later in the day, while signing a flurry of executive orders at the Oval Office, Trump told reporters he was “not confident” that the deal he was largely forced to believe would hold. ” he said.
But Trump added: “It’s not our war. It’s their war.”
Trump has made no secret of his desire to see Israel’s war in Gaza before taking office. He won a second term on a promise to put “America first” and free from conflicts overseas. But his early actions and his first four years in office leave little doubt about his administration’s unwavering support for Israel, with analysts saying Trump has cultivated an image of toughness. and succeeded in pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree. A deal he rejected months ago.
“What was needed was a threat,” Diana Butu, a Palestinian analyst and former negotiator, told Al Jazeera, saying he used the leverage of his position in a way that former president Joe Biden never did. He praised Trump. “Having said that, I don’t think we should give all of this fanfare and applause to Trump because I don’t think it’s an agreement that came to (the Palestinians) without rewards and costs for Netanyahu. is.”
Israel’s reward
If a reward was promised in exchange for a deal, Trump’s first hours in office may suggest what it is, Buttu said. President Trump wasted no time in lifting Biden’s sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, and on Tuesday announced his pick, Elise Stefanik, said at her confirmation hearing that Israel “has a Biblical right” to the West Bank. Trump’s choice for ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has also previously made a Biblical reference on the subject, when he said, That is Judea and Samaria. ”
The actions and statements only built on what Trump had already done during his first term as president, from 2017 to 2021, such as cutting funding to UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. Despite occupying the eastern half of Palestine, it recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. and recognizes Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which is Syrian territory.
Israeli forces launched a raid on Jenin in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday, the fourth day of the ceasefire in Gaza, killing at least 10 people and raising fears that Israel will step up further attacks there. The ceasefire did not include the West Bank, so there was no U.S. pushback.
“There has always been a big reward for Netanyahu,” Butu said, saying he expected the president to soon crack down on the U.S. pro-Palestinian movement, another Israeli priority. “Trump gave Israel almost everything they wanted and he just told them, ‘Don’t keep me at night.’ ”
Still, Trump may not have a signal that even such a reward may not be enough for Netanyahu to remain committed to the ceasefire he fought for months for his own political survival. This is a hint on the first day that you can’t do it.
Ha Helyar, a political analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London and the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., said Trump was “unfavorable” because of the potential collapse of the deal he claimed suggested that others may be prepared to blame the broker’s credit.
“Trump wanted to say a deal was a done deal,” Helia told Al Jazeera, adding, “As long as there’s more intervention from DC, I’d be surprised if we even get past all of Phase 1.” Ta.
He pointed to Netanyahu’s repeated assertion that Israel has the “right” to resume fighting in Gaza.
“Everyone is calling it a ceasefire, but a ceasefire indicates that there is a commitment not to return to war. We don’t have that at all yet,” Helia said. “Statements from Trump administration officials and Trump himself aren’t all that great on that front either. Will Trump use American leverage to get the Israelis to complete Phase 1 and move on to Phase 3? Signs are encouraging No.”
“The Deal of the Century”
As much as he views the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as “not our war,” Trump may have real concerns about his legacy as a dealmaker, analysts say. Said.
In his first term, Trump proposed an Israeli-Palestinian “peace deal” that his administration called the “deal of the century,” and he “normalized” relations between Israel and several Arab countries. ” and bypassed the Palestinians in the process. . This time, he is widely expected to once again seek a deal that is likely to benefit his business interests in the region, while once again cementing his legacy.
But normalization requires a more comprehensive political project than the Abraham Accord that Trump touted in his first term, said Matt Doss, executive vice president of the Progressive Center, an international policy think tank. Ta.
“If Trump is serious about wanting to make peace as he claims, if he is serious about wanting the Nobel Peace Prize, if he is serious about wanting to make peace between Israelis and Palestinians, , if he doesn’t want to do what other presidents can do by normalizing Israel, if he is serious about resolving the region in a realistic and sustainable way, and a fair and reasonable solution for the Palestinians. Reaching that goal is absolutely essential.”
“The way to go with Trump is to appeal to his own sense of greatness,” Duss added. “For the peace and normalization agreement to be actually real and sustainable and not just the Abrahamic Accords, the case that it was the Abrahamic Accords needs to be done to him.” I think there is just a resolution for the Palestinians.”
That’s a tall order. Israel has shown no interest in anything that could bring the Palestinians closer to statehood. Many analysts had argued that it was a condemnable possibility anyway – given Israel’s expansion in the occupied territories.
This week, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who had previously paid lip service to the concept of a Palestinian state, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, October 7, 2023, that the attack on southern Israel is a “wake-up”. said. “On its validity.”
And sometimes there are conflicting loyalties. to a large Christian Zionist political base that is firmly aligned with Israel’s most far-right political elements. Donors like Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson backed his campaign to the tune of nearly $100 million. As well as Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, so far it has indicated that its relations with Israel are based on a Palestinian state.
For a president who says he wants to put “America first,” it’s hard to see how Trump will disentangle himself from conflict.
“I think Trump is really America’s first man. He doesn’t have to worry about wars. He doesn’t like thinking about them, and he’s done it over and over again.” Buttu said. “But at the same time, I don’t know who’s going to pull him.”