A large -scale trade war between the United States and Canada was avoided after the US President Donald Trump refrained from imposing 25 % of the 30 days. However, in Canada, anger exploded, and people were looking for a boycott in the United States, and some people even called for the export of oil to the southern neighbor of the country.
However, blocking the flow of crude oil to the United States can cause a huge economic cost to Canada, and almost all of the crude oil is sent to the United States through a pipeline network.
Furthermore, Canada has diverse its exports after decades of a close trade relationship that was forced by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was re -negotiated by Trump during his first term from 2017 to 2021. It takes time to make it.
Therefore, theoretically, Canada was able to stop the oil flow into the United States as a leverage to retreat Trump due to tariff threats. However, as you do, as the pipeline passes through the US territory, the crude supply to the east of Canada will be confused.
How does Canada oil pipeline work?
The main warning is how the Canadian pipeline infrastructure is placed. Starting in western Canada, most oils are produced, but you need to pass through the United States to reach the east side of Canada.
Most oils are produced in the Canada West Canadian Deposits (WCSB), which consists of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskachuwan, and Manitoba.
Crude oil has passed the pipeline passing through the United States, reaching the east coast of Canada, including Ontario and Quebec, and is sophisticated there. As a result, the pipeline network was built in the 1950s and provided services in both US and Canada refinement.
“Canada and the United States have made a conscious decision to integrate energy infrastructure,” Gitane de Silva, former CEO of the Canadian Energy Regulatory Office (CER), told Al Jazeera. “It seemed to be really long.”
In 1994, the United States, Canada and Mexico signed the NAFTA contract, deleted most of the three countries of three countries, and included provisions on energy cooperation.
“When the contract was ratified, there was a desire in the United States to export as many energy as Canada as possible,” said De Silva. The United States and the Mexican Canada Agreement (USMCA), which were replaced by NAFTA based on Trump in 2020, maintain most of the energy provisions on energy.
Geography also plays a role in how to build a pipeline.
“The geology and geography of building pipelines from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec are a bit challenging for the continental shield and the five major lakes,” said De Silva. The continental shield is a very old and hard Cumbria Kiwa zone, which accounts for almost half of Canadian land.
Canadian petroleum flows to some of the United States, such as the midwest, where several refiners are. A part of the US refinery is closer to the Canadian petroleum site than the eastern states. For example, the oil area of British Colombia is closer to California in the United States than in Ontario in Canada.
How much oil do Canada send to the United States?
According to CER, almost all (about 97 %) of Canada’s crude oil export was exported to the United States in 2023.
According to the US Energy Information Bureau, 60 % of US oil imports in 2022 were from Canada.
According to the Canadian Petroleum Producer Association, Canada produced 5.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Approximately 4.3 million barrel oil products were exported to the United States per day.
Can Canada stop sending crude oil to the United States?
Experts say yes, but it’s unlikely.
Theoretically, the federal government has the authority to stop export. However, De Silva stated that it would be complicated to mean that the federal government and the state share power. Oil production is under the state power.
“Because Canada has never done it before, there is definitely a legal question,” said De Silva, and the difference in opinion could cause a “domestic constitutional crisis.” I added.
De Silva added that after turning off the tap, there is a problem where the oil is stored. “When the pipeline is full, it is very difficult to find more 4 million barrels a day.”
DE SILVA has added that if the Canadian government has decided to block oil supply to the United States, there are also question marks about how the east of Canada (Ontario, Quebec, and New Blancwick will get oil. We ask the United States to prevent the oil flow in the eastern Canada.
According to the 1977 US Canada Transport Pipeline Agreement, US or Canadian public institutions “are intended to impose issues, imposes, detours, redirect, or interfere, or interfere with interference. Hydrocarbon under transportation.
De Silva said, “I don’t know if the Trump administration focuses on those international treaties,” said De Silva.
Last month, he gave a lecture at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and Trump said, “I don’t need Canada oil and gas. We have more than anyone.” I vowed to excavate more oils to make up for it.
There is an alternative that crude oil can transport crude oil from west to east of Canada through railway, trucks, marine and tankers. However, De Silva states: “Pipeline is the safest way to transport oil and gas. Also, it is the most efficient and most cost -effective, not a complete solution, not an ideal solution, but as needed. It will be an option.
According to CER’s 2024 data, the pipeline exported 89.6 % of Canadian crude oil. The rest were sent by railway and other networks.
“Canada is actively looking for other export markets for oil,” said De Silva. But there is no one -night solution to this, she added.
Even among the previous administration of US President Joe Biden, concerns have been raised about the need for Canada to reform the pipeline strategy. On the first day of his inauguration, Biden canceled the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline from Canada to the United States over climate change concerns.
“It’s time for Canada to review the strategy, because the new administration may be very dangerous that there is only one client for exports.” (Mei).
Reuters reported on Tuesday that Trump’s pipeline operators Mountain would be more likely to increase delivery to Asia if Trump conducts tariffs. Last year, the pipeline was expanded and the petroleum brought oil on the Pacific coast of Canada, which is shipped to tankers on the Pacific coast of Canada.
De Silva explained that the ban on petroleum exports to the United States also has a great adverse effect on Canada’s own economy. “The petroleum sector is the biggest factor in our economy,” she said. “Given that the United States is our biggest export market, the federal government has almost the same impact on the United States or considerably considerable, so be very careful before choosing it. I think you are thinking.
What else are being dangerous?
In 2022, 79.2 % of Canada’s sophisticated petroleum came from the United States, according to data from the economic complex observatory (OEC).
The United States imported sophisticated Canadian crude oil in the western United States, and was later sold to Canada and other worlds.
One of the debates that Canada is to prevent Canada from issuing tariffs, “Canada increase the energy that produces safe and secure energy that can be trusted at an affordable price. Exporting the energy produced in the commitment (and), a refined company in the United States is sophisticated and sent back to other areas. “
Higher tariffs can increase fuel and push inflation. They may also affect the export -oriented sector and lead to unemployment. This had a negative effect on the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Todoro and faced the election in the second half of this year.