Bitcoin has shown an extraordinary strength against the background of economic instability, with its price rising about 7% in the past week to around $84,000, briefly touching on $86,000. This is the rise of major US stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to a level that has risen over a year and bond yields to levels not seen since 2007.
Crypto Trading Firm WinterMute said Bitcoin is “relatively well maintained… to reconsider price levels during the US election period.” In past recessions, Bitcoin has typically seen a sharp decline over traditional financial assets. “This indicates a significant shift from historical behavior during a crisis situation,” the company writes. Wintermute linked this performance to the growing institutional presence and the changing nature of investor sentiment around Bitcoin.
New data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the first monthly decline since May 2020, as the consumer price index rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, but fell 0.1% for the month. “Despite this progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the recent escalation in global trade tensions has introduced new potential inflation risks that have not yet been reflected in March’s data,” Wintermute said.
According to Bitwise, companies’ interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. In the first quarter of 2025, 12 new public companies added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This brings the total corporate holdings to 688,000 BTC, a 16% increase, now equivalent to an estimated $57 billion. Analysts say this is affecting the way Bitcoin responds to macroeconomic trends.
Bitwise analyst Jeff Park said recent US trade policies are likely to cause short-term financial instability. “Tax costs will likely be shared by both the US and its trade partners, but the relative impact will be much more heavy for foreigners,” he said. Park believes that such conditions could drive an increase in Bitcoin adoption.
Kalshi Prediction Markets currently has a 61% chance of a US recession this year, but JPMorgan analysts estimate it at 60%. Rising tariffs and geopolitical friction could affect inflation, growth and investor risk appetite over the coming months.
Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research, believes that current trends may not continue. “As the trade war intensifies, Bitcoin could potentially return to its list of dangerous assets, as investors are likely likely looking for gold salvation,” he said. He rated the recent price stability for ETF participation and the growth image of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”