Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 33% since half of April 2024, with block rewards falling from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This mechanism, built into the Bitcoin network, aims to reduce new supply and maintain rarity. However, this time, it appears that the usual four-year market cycle is changing.
Data shows that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of over $109,000 on January 20th, just 273 days later, halfway through. In the previous cycle, it was quite long from half of 2021 to 546 days and 518 days of 2017.
Several analysts point to institutional interests and the growth of Bitcoin ETFs as key reasons for this acceleration. Bitget’s Chief Operating Officer Vugar Usi Zade said that current institutional demand and half-inducible rarity could once again push Bitcoin over $90,000 to a potentially new high. He added that while rarity provides a strong foundation for growth, the price response timeline is not fixed and relies on wider market movements.
Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Asset Tokenization Platform Brickken, agreed that the agency is playing a bigger role. He mentioned companies such as Strategy and Tether, suggesting that increased engagement could shorten the traditional cycle. For half of 2024, Cardozo estimated that if the trend continues in the previous cycle, a market bottom would be expected around the third quarter of 2025 and a peak in mid-2026. However, he believes that with increased liquidity and a more mature market, these milestones could come sooner.
Cardozo also noted that investors are cautious due to a mix of past experiences and continued economic uncertainty. “So, despite Bitcoin’s resilience, I think the mix of past experience, economic uncertainty and this sales pressure keeps investors on the sidelines.
Global economic concerns, particularly the tensions over US-China trade, have also influenced market uncertainty. Analysts say these geopolitical factors shape investors’ feelings. Meanwhile, monetary policy decisions, particularly those made by the US Federal Reserve, could also affect the Bitcoin path. Potential interest rate cuts expected in May or June could introduce more liquidity to the system.
Despite external pressure, Bitcoin price transfer since half shows an unusual speed compared to previous cycles. The growing role of institutions and financial instruments such as ETFs appears to shape how markets respond to harving events. Historical patterns still provide a rough guide, but new factors are changing the pace.