January 20th, Bitcoin (Cryptography: BTC) With a new all-time high of $109,000, many investors thought the world’s most popular cryptocurrency was about to surge. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. Bitcoin is currently down 22% from its peak.
The good news is that Bitcoin has a long track record of recovering from similar market declines. If history is a guide, Bitcoin could be ready to increase its value in the second half of 2025.
The first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that you tend to follow a very clear four-year cycle. The key to the repetitive nature of these four-year cycles is Bitcoin Harving, which takes place every four years. Typically, these cycles have four different stages: accumulation stage, growth stage, bubble phase, and crash phase.
Historically, half of the events have provided a continuous signal for Bitcoin to surge in value as they move from the growth phase to the bubble phase. This bubble phase can last somewhere between 12 and 18 months, and is the period when Bitcoin will make its biggest profit.
For example, consider the 2020-2021 Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle. Half of Bitcoin took place on May 11, 2020. It wasn’t surprising, it helped to start the 18-month gathering.
It’s impressive, but the Bull Market rally that everyone is talking about now is the market cycle from 2015 to 2017. This was kicked off by Bitcoin Harving in July 2016 and lasted nearly 18 months.
The current Bitcoin market cycle appears to be repeating this old market cycle very accurately. In other words, when comparing Bitcoin price charts for these two different market cycles, they appear to be very similar.
And I’m very similar. At the beginning of the year there was a 92% statistical correlation between the two market cycles. That correlation fell to 91%, but it is still very high. As a result, many crypto investors continue to follow a trajectory similar to what took place in 2017, and we are confident that many crypto investors will continue to follow a trajectory that ultimately rose from around $1,000 to $20,000. This means that Bitcoin may be ready to go to the parabola any time right now.
Bitcoin/US Dollar Chart by TradingView
As seen in the chart above, the rise in Bitcoin to the $20,000 level from July 2016 to December 2017 was not a straight upward trajectory. There were a few pullbacks along the way, and there was a long period where there was no breakout. It should provide some mind to crypto investors worried about Bitcoin’s current 22% pullback.
The story continues