Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood recently repeated his Bitcoin predictions (Cryptography: BTC) The price could reach $1.5 million by 2030. In the innovation-focused investment firm’s Big Ideas 2025 report, Wood is combined with institutional interest, increased demand from emerging markets, and a broader view of crypto as an effective form of “digital gold” all in order to boost prices.
ARK calculated its $1.5 million target by measuring Bitcoin’s institutional penetration and its adoption as a safe asset across emerging markets, but the outcome would certainly be a bull’s scenario. Wood also presented what she described as a base case scenario where the price of Bitcoin rises to $710,000, and a bear case scenario that reached $300,000.
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Ark stretches its forecast model to the most optimistic level, claiming that Bitcoin has scored a shot at hitting $2.4 million by 2030, but the company is sticking to $1.5 million as its official five-year price forecast.
Bitcoin is trading at around $94,000 at the time of this writing. So, will it be nearly 1,500% to $1.5 million in the next five years?
Image source: Getty Images.
Even if interest rates hike in 2022 and 2023 cooled the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin prices have risen by more than 1,100% over the past five years. Five catalysts have increased prices.
First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cleared funds (ETFs) traded on Bitcoin’s first spot price exchange to begin trading in January 2024.
Secondly, in April 2024, Bitcoin experienced half of its recent. This is an event built into the cryptographic foundation code that reduces the rewards miners earn to validate blockchain transactions by 50%. These events occur almost every four years, and support prices by increasing the speed at which new coins are introduced by making them difficult and more advantageous. Approximately 19.86 million Bitcoins, the largest supply of up to 21 million Bitcoins, have already been mined, and future halving will pull out the remaining mining until 2140. For Bulls like wood, its rarity makes Bitcoin a property comparable to gold and other precious metals.
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Third, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on benchmark federal funds three times in 2024. Low interest rates attracted more investors towards risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Fourth, countries that were caught inflation were able to adopt Bitcoin as their national currency. Several smaller countries, such as El Salvador and the Central African Republic, tried this strategy, but their attempts ended abruptly. Still, other countries may continue with more successful experiments as Bitcoin prices stabilize.
Finally, President Trump’s pro-Bitcoin policy, including the intention to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the appointment of Paul Atkins’ cryptocurrency advocacy as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has created more tailwinds for the broader cryptocurrency market.
These catalysts could boost Bitcoin prices, but it would require more institutional purchases to reach $1.5 million. Bitcoin Magazine estimates that between 10% and 13% of all circular Bitcoin are already held by institutional investors, ETFs and sovereign funds.
That percentage may sound low, but you slowly catch up with the money. According to the World Gold Council, the gold industry industry industry association, the Global Central Bank held 17% of all gold mined at the end of 2024. WGC discovered in 2022 that it held physical gold in its portfolio.
Moreover, Bitcoin remains much more volatile than gold, with large institutional investors and sovereign funds likely not increasing their positions significantly unless prices rise steadily and steadily.
Another problem is that Bitcoin prices are still indirectly linked to interest rates. If President Trump’s unpredictable tariffs and trade war once again drive higher inflation, the Fed could be pushed to hold its interest rate cuts on hold or raise fees again. If that happens, Bitcoin – still considered a speculative asset – could lose its sheen faster than gold.
Finally, if Bitcoin price reaches $1.5 million, the market capitalization would be nearly $30 trillion. It will make it the most valuable asset in the world. In comparison, gold’s market capitalization is $22 trillion today. The cipher may eventually reach that level, but it seems a bit ambitious to expect it to happen by 2030.
Among the exchange trade funds carried out by Ark Invest is the ARK 21 share bitcoin ETF (nysemkt:arkb)with the cryptocurrency worth around $5 billion at the moment, it’s no surprise that Wood is taking such a bullish stance towards Bitcoin. But that also means we should take her optimistic predictions with a grain of salt.
If you believe that Bitcoin has a bright future as an alternative to gold, it might be wise to accumulate it at these prices. However, investors need to gradually build stocks through dollar cost averaging strategies to offset short-term volatility. It’s a bad idea to go all-in with Bitcoin now and expect prices to skyrocket 1500% over the next five years to $1.5 million. After all, its path to high targets is full of dangerous potholes.
Consider this before purchasing inventory with Bitcoin.
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According to this growth, Bitcoin could skyrocket nearly 1,500% in five years.
