The matchup for Super Bowl 59 will be decided soon.
There may seem to be little room for surprises for the four teams remaining in the conference title game. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles have already met twice this season, splitting the season series between the NFC East rivals. And the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are familiar with each other, including a Week 11 matchup in which Josh Allen and others handed Andy Reid’s team its first loss of the season.
However, the penultimate weekend could bring unexpected twists, as last year’s San Francisco 49ers came back from a 17-point deficit to defeat the Detroit Lions. Could there be another defining moment for the franchise?
Here are our bold predictions for this Sunday’s conference title game.
Chris Jones ends drought, gets two sacks
In a normal matchup, it wouldn’t be so bold to predict that All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones would get to the quarterback. But this is different. It’s buffalo. And Josh Allen.
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The Bills’ underrated offensive line allowed an NFL-low 14 sacks during the regular season, including a shutout of the Chiefs in a blowout win over Buffalo in November. In fact, the Chiefs didn’t fire the slippery Allen when KC won the district playoffs last year. In other words, I think the Chiefs’ defense is premature. Jones will lead the way and lead by example with two sacks to end the drought.
No, it’s not easy. Allen, who is having an MVP-eligible season, is perhaps the toughest quarterback in the NFL to beat given his knack for extending plays with power, speed and vision. And his elusiveness is just part of the reason the Bills have allowed the fewest sacks. Allen helps protect the O-line with his improved awareness on pass plays. This translates into knowing exactly when to throw the football when the pass rush is in trouble. Of course, Allen can also pull the bolt out of his pocket to avoid the sack. It’s worth noting that Allen wasn’t the only one not fired in the last two meetings between the teams. He was also Buffalo’s leading rusher in each of those games. Jones had just five sacks during the regular season, his lowest since his rookie year in 2016. Still, the sack against CJ Stroud last weekend to open the playoffs was perhaps a sign of that. With a Super Bowl berth on the line, there’s no doubt that his pass rush could be a significant X-factor.
— Jarrett Bell
Patrick Mahomes throws 3 interceptions, ending dream of winning 3 straight championships
The three-time Super Bowl MVP won’t be disappointed in this game.
Mahomes has eight interceptions in the playoffs, including three interceptions (two in the Super Bowl). His performance with three picks is uncharted territory for him, and it could go a long way in ending the Chiefs’ chances of winning a third straight championship.
Sean McDermott’s defense may not have any stars or big names, especially in the secondary. But the team will have to turn Mahomes over once or twice to put the Chiefs on the back foot. Add in the desperation interception, and there are three – and the Bills may need each – to pull off the upset and head to New Orleans.
Mahomes has had a somewhat strange season when it comes to throwing picks. He threw at least one inning in each of the first seven games of the season and nine of 11. But the two-time league MVP hasn’t thrown a pick in seven straight games.
Of course, the very idea of Mahomes turning the ball over seems far-fetched. He only threw three picks three times in his entire career, and the Chiefs actually won two of those games. The only loss was a memorable Monday Night Football shootout against the Rams in 2018, which Los Angeles won 54-51. But something dramatic has to happen to end the Chiefs’ spell. This one.
— Chris Bumbaka
Bills’ no-turn streak ends in Kansas City
The Bills’ two scores were key to their Week 11 victory over Kansas City. Buffalo has an NFL-high 35 takeaways and an NFL-low eight turnovers this season (including the playoffs). Josh Allen and company have committed zero turnovers in the last four playoff games. They became the first team in history to have no turnovers in four straight postseason games.
The Bills’ streak of no turnovers will end Sunday against Kansas City. I predict Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie will pick Allen and the Bills will also lose a fumble. Buffalo will lose the turnover battle for the first time this postseason, and giveaways will play a key role in the team’s loss to Kansas City.
All streaks end at some point. Unfortunately for the Bills, their winning streak would coincide with a playoff loss.
— Tyler Dragon
Saquon Barkley ties record for most rushing yards in a season including playoffs
The Philadelphia Eagles’ All-Pro running back was left out of the lineup for the final game in Week 18, falling just short of Eric Dickerson’s legendary single-season rushing record. But Barclay has a solid outlook. How bold is this prediction, really? – Breaking Terrell Davis’ record for rushing yards in a season including playoffs (2,476), he’s 148 yards away from taking first place. He averaged 148 in two games against Washington during the regular season.
Washington knows it can’t afford to falter with run fits, but its rush defense, which ranks 30th in the league, continues to leak in key areas. Unless managers can curtail the possibility of a big payoff, it seems like Barkley has a good chance of making NFL history.
— Michael Middlehurst Schwartz