On May 10, US President Donald Trump announced that his administration had mediated a “full and immediate” ceasefire between India and Pakistan. US media reported that they were wary of further escalation of intelligence signals, and the promotion of emergency mediation by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House chief Susie Wills. Vance warned of the devastating risks that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi encouraged a direct meeting between India and Pakistan.
The announcement of the ceasefire was received around the world with a sigh of relief. According to a 2019 survey, the ghost of nuclear exchange, which could kill up to 125 million people within a week, has fueled local anxiety and a diplomatic frenzy in the United States.
However, in India, Trump’s announcement was seen differently in the quarter. Former Indian Army Chief Ved Prakash Malik posted on X. MP Asaduddin Owaisi writes on the same platform: “We would like to announce a ceasefire, not a foreign president. We have always been opposed to third-party intervention since Simla (1972).
The latter comment likely refers to Trump’s statement that he is willing to work with India and Pakistan.
The announcement of the ceasefire by the US President appears to be perceived by some India as a sign of a retreat of the US government, while his offer to mediate Kashmir is seen as a sign of a long-standing rejection of India’s third-party intervention.
In South Asian geopolitics, perception often outweighs reality until reality bites. India has long predicted control of the region, strengthened by economic growth and nuclear power. However, its actions in the aftermath of the April 22nd massacre, carried out by the Kashmir Resistance Front (TRF), revealed its vulnerability. The Indian response, which aimed to assert strength, has boosted the Pakistan region’s position and diplomatically undermined the Modi government.
On May 7, India launched Operation Sindoor to dismantle terrorist bases associated with groups like the TRF. Supported by the French-made Lafahr Legettes, the operation sought to project Modi’s strongman image in the midst of domestic rage. But its success was contested. Pakistan reported civilian casualties, including children, but India claimed that only terrorist sites were attacked.
The Pakistani Air Force claimed it had scrambled its own jet to deflect the attack, defeating five Indian jets, including three Rafale. Two U.S. authorities confirmed with Reuters that a Chinese-made J-10 jet had shot down at least two Indian planes that helped support China’s intelligence report, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). India has not acknowledged any losses.
Although Indian media initially claimed a catastrophic strike against Pakistani cities, including the port of Karachi, these reports, which were apparently part of propaganda efforts, proved to be false.
On May 9, India launched a missile attack at a base in Pakistan. Pakistan claimed it would include a base near Islamabad. The Pakistani Army retaliated with short-range missiles and drone strikes targeting Indian air force bases in Udhanpur, Pathankot, Adhanpur and Bhuj. Indian Air Force officer Vyomika Singh reported that Pakistani drones and ammunition had been attacked by civilians and military targets.
The image of India as a region hegemon has worn out. The Indian government has clearly overestimated the Rafalejet plane, underestimated Pakistan’s China-supported ISR system, increasing the accuracy of the battlefield.
China’s military support for Pakistan has increased significantly in recent years. Since 2020, it has accounted for 81% of Islamabad’s military imports.
For years, some Indian defense analysts warned that Indian troops were not prepared for China-backed Pakistan. Others criticized the government’s foreign policy to encourage China-Pakistan’s settlement. Their warnings remained ignored in New Delhi.
Events in the past few days have exposed India’s strategic restrictions and replaced ambiguity with global scrutiny. The response of Nijerk in New Delhi could be to increase the defence budget and further deepen the militarization of Kashmir.
It is good to consider that the current state of Shadow War and the cycle of secret aggression that burns anxiety is unacceptable as the Indian government plans its next step. The intelligence agencies of both countries have long supported the assistance by promoting instability from Kashmir to Afghanistan.
The road ahead is located in New Delhi and Islamabad, making wise choices. Restraint, not rhetoric, must shape the policy that advances. Otherwise, geopolitical disruption, economic stagnation and difficulties for millions of people will be at stake. India and Pakistan are home to one-quarter of the world’s poorest people and over 350 million illiterate adults, and cannot afford to buy long-term conflicts. Continuing tensions derail India’s growth, crippling Pakistan’s fragile economy and warn tactical benefits.
The views expressed in this article are the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.