At Crypto Market, bold predictions are more than just a story. It is often supported by real dollars through lottery-like option plays that offer Outsized Upside at a relatively small cost.
The standout at the time of writing is the 300,000 Strike Bitcoin Call option, which expires on June 26th. In theory, the call bets that BTC spot prices will triple more than $300,000 by the end of the year.
Over 5,000 contracts were aggressively and proactive in June, bringing an expected open profit of $484 million. This will make the June key expiration date the second most popular option bet, with only $110,000 calls.
Deribit is the world’s leading crypto option exchange, accounting for over 75% of global option activity. In Deribit, one option contract represents 1 BTC. Quarterly expiration dates, such as those scheduled for June 26th, will increase market activity and volatility, and traders will use these deadlines to hedge positions, lock gains, and speculate about the next price movement.
“Perhaps people like to buy lottery tickets. As evidenced by call skew, there are always people who want hyperinflation hedges,” said Spencer Hallarn, derivatives trader at Crypto Market Maker GSR, explaining the so-called open interest in the so-called (OTM) calls of 300K strike.
Deep OTM calls, also known as wings, are significantly cheaper compared to those close to or below the market rate of assets, as large movements in the price of the underlying asset are profitable. However, when the markets gather, the payoffs are very large, similar to buying lottery tickets with slim odds, but with the potential for a large payment.
Deribit’s BTC options market has experienced similar flows during the previous bull cycle, but these bets have rarely gained popularity enough to rank them as the second-highest plays on quarterly expiration dates.
The chart shows that the June 26th expiration date is the largest of all settlements scheduled for this year, with the $300,000 call having the second highest open interest accumulation for the June expiration option.
GSR trader Simranjeet Singh explained the open interest in the thick concept of the $300,000 call, saying, “This is primarily accumulation of relatively inexpensive wings betting on the broader US registration narrative, “a possibility of wings,” and mentions that the BTC strategic reserve has launched its administration (no pun intended).
In a speech Friday, Sen. Cynthia Ramis said he was particularly pleased with President Trump’s support for the Bitcoin Act.