Cathie Wood of Ark Invest recently raised its Bitcoin price forecast for 2030 from $1.5 million to $2.4 million.
The updated forecast reflects new ideas about Bitcoin’s active coin supply.
New Spot Institutional investment via Bitcoin ETF is the single largest driver of Bitcoin valuation and should be monitored regularly.
Regarding Bitcoin (Cryptography: BTC) Price prediction is one investor that is currently attracting my attention. She currently predicts that Bitcoin will reach a price of $2.4 million by 2030.
This is an eye-opening prediction, especially given Bitcoin’s recent struggle to regain its $100,000 price level this year. Based on today’s prices, the $2.4 million future price tag assumes Bitcoin will rise 2,426% over the next five years. So is she right?
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For several years, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has been using the Building Blocks rating model for Bitcoin. Simply put, she looks at six key areas where Bitcoin shows signs of growth and tries to predict how these areas will work over the next five years. Next, we summarise the value of each of these important areas to arrive at the total Bitcoin valuation.
Image source: Getty Images.
Currently, key drivers for Bitcoin price growth include the new spot Bitcoin ETF. That’s because large institutional investors continue to pour their money into Bitcoin through these ETFs. If an investor decides to ratchet the percentage of the portfolio allocated to Bitcoin, it should help send the price of Bitcoin rising.
In an updated $2.4 million forecast, Kathy Wood believes that Bitcoin could account for 6.5% of its investment portfolio by 2030. This is an aggressive goal as the proposed allocation of Bitcoin is only 2%, and many risk aversion investors may be comfortable with a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. But it certainly lies within the realm of possibilities.
In an Ark Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report released in January, Cathie Wood reached Bitcoin’s $1.5 million price tag. The numbers used in that report have not changed much when compared to the numbers used in the updated $2.4 million forecast. For example, Ark Invest still uses a 6.5% allocation figure for facility investors.
But what has changed is Cathy Wood’s Bitcoin supply calculations. Based on her estimates, 40% of Bitcoin supply is now “Vaulted.” That is, the cryptocurrency exchange was removed and placed in a private blockchain wallet for secure long-term storage. It also refers to Bitcoin that has been lost or simply disappeared from the circulation.
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This 40% lack can have a significant impact on supply and demand. As we know from Economics 101, an increase in demand for an asset during a decline in supply will require the price of that asset to be higher. Bitcoin, famous for its inherent shortage, appears to have become rare over time.
The updated evaluation model for Ark Invest uses a new experimental metric called “Liveliness.” When this “vibrant” metric is used as part of the valuation model, Bitcoin price forecasts are much higher. You can check out the math yourself – it’s all published on the official ARK Invest website.
You may have noticed that I have never used the word “customers” before. As soon as we heard about Ark Invest’s new $2.4 million price target, we immediately assumed that tariffs and global trade policy would be included. However, this does not seem to be the case – the updated forecast was primarily based on new ideas about the circular supply of Bitcoin.
That being said, Ark Invest points out that more investors are beginning to see Bitcoin as “digital gold,” and this is the second-largest driver for future valuations. It also points out that Bitcoin is currently considered a potential safe haven asset in many emerging markets, and there are concerns about currency devaluation and hyperinflation.
Keep an eye on these two factors as tariffs can dramatically affect future valuations of Bitcoin. After all, in the Ark Invest basic case scenario, Bitcoin only reaches a price of $1.2 million. And in the bear case scenario, bitcoin only makes $500,000.
For now, I’m focusing on the influx of investors into Bitcoin ETFs. If these are well maintained amid ongoing tariff uncertainty and institutional investors start to hear more about moving money to Bitcoin, we are confident that Bitcoin will hit a price range of $2.4 million within the next five years.
Consider this before purchasing inventory with Bitcoin.
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Dominic Basulto has a position in Bitcoin. Motley Fool has a position and recommends Bitcoin. Motley Fools have a disclosure policy.
Bitcoin could rise 2,426% over the next five years, according to Cathie Wood of Ark Invest.
