The day before Easter, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a temporary ceasefire for Christian holidays. Like other Russian promises, this was broken too. Ukrainian media reported Russian drone attacks, artillery and firefights on the frontline. Ukrainian civilians were also targeted.
This ceasefire was not on the other tail. It was a 30-day ceasefire that was supposed to cover energy infrastructure. According to Ukrainian media reports, it was violated at least 30 times.
During this time, President Donald Trump has continued to argue that peace can be achieved. Even after his own Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, warned that the US could move away from its mediator role due to lack of progress, the president expressed optimism that deals were still possible.
On Easter Sunday, Trump wrote about the society of truth: “Hopefully Russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week.”
A week ago, Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Smie with a ballistic missile. The attacks have reached 34 deaths, including two children, with more than a dozen injuries. Even this bloody attack did not shake up the US president who called it a “mistake.”
Three months after his presidency, it is clear that Trump has been making a dramatic mistake in Ukraine. He must now realize that bold promises are made easier than they are fulfilled. He has not ended the war in 24 hours, and as he promised, he will not do so for 100 days.
Under his leadership, Washington’s mediation drive appears to be stagnant, and its strategy is unknown. A president who takes pride in his transactional production and strength is now indecisive and ineffective.
If this continues, Trump risks failing twice. Once as a negotiator, and once again as an ally. His current approach not only weakens the role of the US in the world, but also promotes Russia to continue its attack.
Despite the Trump administration’s outreach to the Kremlin, it is nothing more than a broken promise to an empty rhetoric and a ceasefire.
Putin’s posture remains unchanged. He calls for recognition of Russian claims against the four Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Crimea and the Russian military, and calls for a limit on the size of the military, without Kiev’s NATO membership. He also calls for elections during the war and openly calls for a change of government in the country.
Putin feels he is negotiating from a strength standpoint and refuses to compromise. As Trump currently lacks leverage to make him reconsider, his strategy is to put pressure on surrendering Ukraine to Russia. He exacerbates the situation with his policies on military aid in Ukraine.
After initially halting the transfer of weapons and munitions, sharing intelligence news with Ukraine partially reversed his stance. He resumed military aid approved by the management of his predecessor, President Joe Biden, but once the current package was finished, the new package refused to consider the new package.
His administration still has a multi-billion dollar drawdown and could be allocated for further security support to Ukraine, but Trump has not shown he is willing to approve it.
This means that Ukraine will soon face a situation where major ammunition stocks will run out. Russia knows this and uses negotiations with the US to buy time.
While the Ukrainian forces waited for the exhaustion of important supplies, Moscow began mobilizing a large army. The call for 160,000 new conscriptions shows a major escalation. Ukrainian commanders have warned that major attacks could begin within weeks on multiple fronts.
Putin’s goal is to use the Trump administration’s self-proclaimed “peace-making” ambitions for his interests. His strategy is to drag out ceasefire negotiations until US aid is gone and Russian forces are fully willing to surrender Kiev to Ukrainian territory.
For Ukraine, defeat is not an option. The country is still standing, and will continue to fight as its freedom and independence are at stake. Even if Trump puts more pressure on Kiev to consider a bad “peace agreement” with Russia, which makes all the concessions Putin wants, Ukrainian leaders won’t sign it because it means political ruin.
Europe now has few options, due to all his hesitation and internal cleavage, but will not become a full-fledged ally of Kiev. Europeans know that Russia will not stop in Ukraine, and the threat is existential to them. The Kremlin is already preparing the Russian population through a massive propaganda campaign that requires a “great war” with NATO countries.
Faced with this threat, European countries are looking for Reimm. This takes time. This means that the Ukrainian war of liberation will continue for years, with or without US involvement.
Meanwhile, the US is sank deep into a domestic crisis under its current course, plagued by costly decisions in a world that are consumed by aftershocks of self-isolation and no longer led. This is what Trump has left behind. It is a legacy of retreat, not a solution.
If he does not change courses, history remembers him not as a powerful leader who brought peace, but as a proud naive man who made promises that he cannot fulfill.
The views expressed in this article are the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.