Coinbase’s latest market report paints a complex picture for the crypto market, showing signs of decline as well as the possibility of recovery later in the year.
The report, published on April 15, reveals that Altcoin’s market capitalization had fallen by 41% from $1.6 trillion in December 2024 to about $900 billion by mid-April 2024. Factors that contribute to the sector’s pessimistic outlook.
Coinbase’s global research director David Duong pointed out these issues along with global trade tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty as factors that could mark the beginning of a new “Crypto Winter.” Duon emphasized that the decline in investor sentiment and lower venture capital profits on crypto are largely linked to wider macroeconomic pressures, including tightening the fiscal and tariffs.
However, the report does not rule out the possibility of recovery. Coinbase suggests that the market could stabilize by the mid- to late quarter of 2025, paving the way for a possible third-quarter rebound. Coinbase’s analysis highlights that the traditional 20% drop commonly used to define the bear market is not very suitable for current crypto landscapes. Instead, we recommend relying on more sophisticated metrics such as risk-adjusted returns and 200-day moving averages to measure market changes.
Bitcoin’s performance is relatively stable compared to altcoins. They have experienced some declines, but they have not fallen sharply as quickly as many altcoins. However, according to Coinbase data, Bitcoin prices have recently fallen below the 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator that changes the broader market. Additionally, Coinbase’s Coin50 index, which tracks the top 50 non-Bitcoin tokens, is also below the 200-day moving average, indicating that weakness could continue across the market.
Volatility in new sectors such as memecoin, decentralized physical infrastructure networks (depin), and artificial intelligence-related tokens are contributing to market instability. Coinbase notes that because these sectors are affected by price fluctuations, Bitcoin is an unreliable indicator of the overall market direction. Duon said that as Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a “store of value,” new approaches may be needed to take into account the increased diversity of space to assess the broader crypto market.
The short-term outlook remains cautious, but Coinbase remains optimistic about the potential market recovery in the second half of 2025. The company encourages investors to be flexible and cautious as the market situation remains uncertain. However, if global economic factors improve, Coinbase expects a stronger market in late 2025.