According to GlassNode data, Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain metrics have been flashing key signals again as the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV ratio has fallen to a level related to market stress and yield.
This metric compares the market value (current BTC price) and the realised price (average cost basis for coins held by short-term holders). A STH MVRV value below 1.0 indicates that recent buyers have on average retained unrealized losses underwater. At 0.82, this means that short-term holders have fallen on average by around 18%, a sign that many people are experiencing serious pain.
This level closely reflects the lower values of previous MVRV cycles: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both preceded the market bottom and trend reversal.
Historically, such deep MVRV drawdowns have made the period of weaker hands surrender and smart money accumulation.
Data from GlassNode shows that since February, long-term holders (investments over 155 days) have increased the supply of the cohort by approximately 500,000 BTC.
In contrast, short-term holders distribute over 300,000 BTC driven by a combination of profit acquisition and surrender. This imbalance indicates that long term holders accumulate more BTC than short term holders sell.