US President Donald Trump announced a suspension on US military aid to Ukraine on Monday amid splitting relations with Ukraine Volodimia Zelenki.
The United States has been Ukraine’s only largest provider of defence aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Eastern European countries in February 2022, serving as a diplomatic fulcrum that Kiiv supported Kiev against Moscow.
However, the suspension of military aid comes after increasingly public criticism after public criticism from Trump and his senior officials, when Ukraine was sought for the exact opposite before the US strengthened its hands before it was settled by Trump.
So what exactly did Trump stop, why did he do it, and can Ukraine fight Russia without new US aid?
what happened?
After raising tensions with Zelenskyy, Trump suspends military aid to Kyiv, with US media reporting on Monday, citing an unnamed US official who claimed that the president was unsure that Zelensky was committed to peace.
The news of the suspension comes hours after Trump wrote it on his true social platform.
The Associated Press reported that the suspension will continue until Ukraine shows its commitment to peace talks with Russia, the Associated Press reported citing an unnamed White House official.
Why did the US suspend military aid?
Before Trump’s pause and the social post of truth, Zelensky said during a briefing in Kiev on Sunday that the end of the Ukrainian War was “still very far, very far away.”
“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not hold it down much longer!” Trump responded about the true society.
Zelensky met with Trump, US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the White House oval office on February 28th. The tone of their reporting interaction quickly became hostile when Trump and Vance accused Ukrainian leaders of not being fully grateful for the military aid sent from the US to Kiyif.
A month after the inauguration, Trump shifted US policies regarding the Ukrainian War to make it more open to communications with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Last month, Washington and Moscow officials were not invited to join Ukraine, Europe and in their countries for peace talks in Saudi Arabia.
When Zelensky and his European allies expressed dissatisfaction over this, Trump accused the Ukrainian president of starting a war, sparking a tense exchange of words between him and Zelensky.
Despite recent tensions with Trump, Zelensky on Sunday said, “We think our relationship will continue as our relationship (with the US) is more than an occasional relationship.”
Then came the Trump bomb announcement that the US would freeze all military aid to Ukraine.
How much military aid has the US promised to Ukraine?
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, marking the beginning of this war, the US government has used DOD budget documents to send about $860 billion to Ukraine from the Military Aid (DOD) Budget from the Congress and the Department of Defense (DOD) Budget, according to calculations from the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
These funds have been pledged through multiple mechanisms, including $46 billion through the President’s Drawdown Agency (PDA), $33 billion through the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and $7 billion known as Foreign Military Finance (FMF).
Funds allocated by the US are funding primarily spent on the manufacture of weapons shipped to Ukraine. These include air defense systems, missiles, helicopters, tanks, coastal defense systems, and body armor. Some money is also intended to replenish the depleted and depleted US weapons and ammunition that were rushed to Ukraine to fight Russia.
Importantly, however, according to CSIS analysis, most of the money the US government has allocated to support Ukraine’s military defense has yet to be paid.
What is paused?
Potentially hundreds of billions of dollars of military aid.
The White House has not yet spelled out exactly what comes with a pause, but in theory it could halt all the money allocated to help Ukraine, not just future aid.
Since assuming an office, Trump has not approved a new aid package to Ukraine. Therefore, the halting aid package was approved by former President Joe Biden.
According to a CSIS analysis, of the $86 billion allocated funds, only $22 billion has actually been allocated to Ukraine.
Another $28.6 billion was committed. In other words, the US Department of Defense has announced how to use the funds. And a $34.2 billion bucket is mandatory. In other words, the government has signed a contract to produce equipment. This pause could mean that the US will not allow any of this to reach Ukraine until Zelensky is given a connection to Trump.
Some of the pledged aid, approximately $2.7 billion, expired before it was used as it failed to act within the timeline specified during the budget period.
The planned delivery for 2025 includes ammunition for a kind of cannon weapon called the Howzers, and air defense systems, Mark Kansian, former US Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser to CSIS, told Al Jazeera.
How dependent is Ukraine on US weapons?
Not as much as before.
Ukraine scrambled to boost its own defence production capacity during the war, country Prime Minister Dennis Schmichal announced last year.
In an interview published on February 4th, Zelenskyy told British journalist Piers Morgan that Ukraine currently produces 40% of the weapons it needs, while the US supplies 30%. “You can imagine what will happen to us without this important 30 percent,” Zelensky told Morgan. Ukraine mainly produces drones, electronic warfare systems and artillery, Zelensky said at a press conference on February 19.
The remaining 30% of Ukrainian weapons come from other sources, including Europe.
However, the weapons the US has supplied to Ukraine are the deadliest and cutting edge of the arsenals of Eastern European countries.
Can Ukraine continue the fight without the US?
Kansian said without military aid from the US, Ukrainian troops could only hold on for two to four months before Russia breaks their line.
“Suspension of delivering US aid will cut about half of Ukrainian weapons, munitions and supplies acquisitions. As it is, Ukraine was barely hanging with Russians hitting the frontline and earning expensive, not continuous profits,” Kansian said.
“Without US military aid, Ukrainian forces will gradually lose their fighting capabilities. My guess is that Ukrainians can withstand for two or four months before their lines buckle and the Russians can break through.”
Can Europe fill this gap?
“European military aid is almost in line with US military aid so far. To close the gap with a suspension of extension of US aid, we need a significantly increased commitment from Europe,” Kangsian said.
“That being said, weapons won’t come true overnight. It will take some time for Europe’s new commitments to reach Ukraine. It will be difficult for Europe to quickly close the gap in equipment delivery.”
European leaders have recently debated how they can provide security assurances to Kiev. At the security summit in London on Sunday, when British Prime Minister Kiel attended, a group of European leaders discussed the imperative that it would be essential to continue the flow of weapons to Ukraine. Additionally, Starmer announced a £1.6 billion ($2 billion) deal, allowing Ukraine to spend money on 5,000 air defense missiles.
However, it is unclear how much military aid Ukrainian European allies can provide, and whether they will fill the gap left by Trump’s suspension. Zelensky and European leaders acknowledge the importance of Washington’s support in reaching the end of the war in Ukraine. “To support and succeed in peace on our continent, this effort must gain strong US support,” Starmer said after Sunday’s summit.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was invaded as punitive measures, approximately $300 million in Russian Central Bank assets were frozen by the US and Europe. Currently, calls from European governments such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are growing to move these assets to Ukraine. “Europeans could use it to buy additional weapons, but that would be a major policy change,” Kangsian said.
However, French President Emmanuel Macron is afraid that it will resist the use of frozen Russian assets, violating the principle of immunity against foreign assets and driving away foreign investors such as China and Saudi Arabia.
What is the response to Trump’s aid?
Trump’s decision attracted rage from Democrats.
Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle called Trump’s decision “reckless, vulnerable, and a direct threat to national security.”
“This aid was approved by Congress on a bipartisan basis. Republicans and Democrats alike have recognized that their position with Ukraine is against democracy and Putin’s invasion,” Boyle added.
Democratic leader Dan Goldman said Trump’s new move was “President Zelensky’s other terror.”