On February 28th, Ukrainian President Voldimir Zelensky held a much-anticipated meeting with US President Donald Trump to convince U.S. support to Ukraine. It is likely that the encounter was not what the Ukrainian head of state had hoped for.
Trump and US Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelensky in front of television cameras for being “disrespectful” and refusing to accept their initiative for a ceasefire with Russia.
It is clear that Zelensky will not return to Washington during President Trump. It is also clear that US pressure on Ukraine will escalate significantly in the next few weeks and months as Trump presses Kiev to make big concessions to Russia in return for peace.
Even before the White House showdown, the Trump administration questioned Zelensky’s legitimacy and pushed for a presidential election to take place. But rushing elections with the sole purpose of eliminating incumbents could spell out the disaster of the nation.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky’s approval rate for the presidency was low at 28% and 11% for his party. A full-scale Russian invasion sent Ukrainians gathering behind the president, and his popularity reached record highs. However, over the past two years, his approval rate has been consistently declining. According to the poll, Zelenskyy’s trust fell from 54% in April 2024 to 49% in January. This isn’t as low as Trump claimed, but it’s far from the 90% rating in May 2022.
Several factors have contributed to Zelensky’s decline in popularity, including ramp-prolonged corruption under his administration and increased fatigue from ongoing war.
The Ukrainian president – well aware of his vulnerability – has made it clear that he is not satisfied with the competition. For him, the interest is high as if he loses his bid for reelection, as he could face corruption or prosecution for various forms of retaliation from his rivals. The polls already show that if the election is held soon, he will lose.
A terrifying challenger to Zelenskyy has already appeared: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general who served as commander of the Ukrainian army until February 2024. The public trust in him was the highest, at 72% in January.
Zaluzhnyi was rejected by the president in 2023 for his failed heels in Ukraine, but there was speculation that his popularity in Ukraine could be a factor. The general was sent overseas and served as the UK ambassador to Ukraine.
So far, Zaluzhnyi has not declared his intention to run, but there is no guarantee that he will not change his mind. If he is away, other military personnel such as Kyrylo Budanov may intervene.
Budanov, the director of Ukraine’s intelligence reporting department, has a public trust rating of 62%. He recently disappeared from the public eye after a year of his recent appearance in the media. Rumors spread that Zelenskyy’s office plans to eliminate him, leading to his sudden retreat. But he may come back once the campaign begins.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk could become a potential dark horse. In a country where former comedians become president, the winning athletes don’t look like an unlikely competitor. He has not made public his political ambitions public, but he has started appearing in polls, and his rating is currently at 60%.
Then there was former President Petro Poroshenko. He has a low approval rate, but remains a dangerous rival to Zelensky. Since 2019, more than 130 criminal cases have been launched against him. It includes Russians’ accusing treason of approving a coal support scheme from the Donbas region.
Poroshenko is a candid critic of Zelensky and does not hide his political ambitions. He traveled to the US and met with Trump’s team. In February, when he tried to go to a security meeting in Munich, he was not allowed. He is currently facing state-imposed sanctions on the “national security foundation” including a freeze on assets.
The message of sanctions is clear. Poroshenko will be removed from the presidential election before it begins. In this context of perceived political persecution, other potential challengers are not coming forward and fearing enough to run.
There has been growing concern over Zelenskyy’s handling of opposition, but so far no strong public responsibilities have emerged from his allies. After the conflict in the White House, European leaders expressed their support for him. This gave Zelenskyy a temporary boost at home, but it’s unclear how long it will last.
Apart from bitter political competition and retaliation, the Ukrainian political scene is also characterized by the continued division within society. War intensifies emotions, divides the country into the middle, creating unstable circumstances.
Not only do ultranationalists have a shaking effect among certain parts of the population, they are also empowered as active participants in the war. There are also some societies that are pro-Russian and do not want the conflict to continue.
If elections are imposed from overseas in this unstable situation, it could prove to be more devastating than Russian invasions and the loss of Ukrainian industrial heartland. The danger is not only that a third of the population can’t vote, but election legitimacy could be a problem.
The real threat is that the vote can fire all the fights before one vote throws. Incumbents who are afraid to lose their re-election bids and political rivals like hellish to regain their relevance may resort to exploiting social divisions. Military and security agencies could be forced to act, which adds to the potentially explosive mix.
If presidential elections can be peaceful and dangerously polarized society – as we saw in the US, they could be much worse in times of war. The rushing election in Ukraine, which serves the political planning of foreign powers, is certainly a disaster recipe. A vote should be made when there is a durable ceasefire that allows all Ukrainians to vote without fear of polarization and the outlook of conflict.
The views expressed in this article are the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.