Kiev, Ukraine – ahead of an emergency summit in Paris on European responses excluded from US-Russia peace talks, the Ukrainian president warned about his country’s dark future if US military aid is cut .
“(w)e can be low. There’s a low chance of survival without US support,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with NBC news program Meet the Press.
In December, US President Donald Trump said he was open to the idea of reducing military aid to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy rejected the proposed US agreement that granted Washington’s access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military aid.
The rejection, along with Trump’s recent statement and private appeal between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, raised new uncertainty about Washington’s long-term support for Kiev.
I depend on Europe
If we support ourselves uncertainly, Europe is facing pressure to fill the gap.
At the Munich Security Conference on February 14-16, Zelensky appeared to respond to Trump’s actions and comments by raising the issue of Europe building “their own army.”
“Let’s be honest. Zelenskyy can’t rule out the possibility that America could say “no” to Europe about issues that threaten it.
Lieutenant General Ihol Romanenko, former vice chief of Ukrainian military general staff, told Al Jazeera that Ukraine needs more help than Europe can provide.
“Europe will probably not be able to replace American aid,” he said, adding that Ukraine will not survive for long without predicting US military aid and “we will last for six months.”
There are political complications that could hinder European support.
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fiko are both skeptical of military aid to Kiev, which could block decisions across the EU. Meanwhile, Germany’s far-right AFD party has surged in polls, further complicating Europe’s ability to act decisively.
German alternatives (AFDs) are anti-immigration, anti-European Union, and often Proputin. There are concerns that Berlin’s aid to Kiev and the deportation of Ukrainian refugees could be put an end to it.
Even if Europe could reach an agreement to increase military aid to Ukraine, it faces challenges in expanding weapons and ammunition production. The Russian defense industry outperforms NATO in arms production, highlighting the need for the EU to reinvigorate its defense industry bases to effectively support Ukraine.
Russia is also supported by North Korea, with Ukraine’s intelligence agency estimated that Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to Russian territory. South Korea reports that North Korea supplies millions of shells to Moscow.
“That was poor.”
Romanenko pointed out that Ukraine already has a preview of life without US military aid.
Republican hardliners under the influence of former President Donald Trump have lagged the bill passed in April 2024 for months, putting the road to more than $600 billion in desperate need for Ukraine It’s opened.
“We’ve already seen what the six-month aid halt has brought about,” Romanenko said.
Before the package was approved, Ukraine lost several strategic bases in the southeastern Donbas region at the expense of “thousands of lives,” Romanenko said.
Bogan, a military officer deployed to Donbas during delays in military aid, told Al Jazeera that the battle had become much more dangerous during that time.
“It was poor. We were able to fire five shells a day, but (exp) the Russians could fire hundreds at us without counting hundreds,” said Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Bogan, who was unable to give his last name due to restrictions, said.
“Midsummer or autumn”
With five separate bills voted through the US Congress, Washington has so far provided $175 billion in aid to Kiev since launching a full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Nikolei Mitrokin, a researcher at the University of Bremen in Germany, told Al Jazeera how quickly Ukraine passes US-funded military supplies, the speed at which soldiers are forced to use them. He said he will depend on.
Continuous Russian air raids mean that Kiev relies on missiles from US-made Patriot Air Defence Systems, he said. Patriot missiles cost millions of dollars and are often spent on targets of consumables, such as Iranian-made Shahed drones and Russian-made replicas.
“That’s why my assumption is that current and future US supplies will definitely continue until fall (July) and fall (September) if they don’t spend a reasonable amount of time,” says Mitrokin. Ta.
In particular, if Patriot missiles, lightly armored vehicles, and 155mm shells used to suppress the progress of Russian infantry come, the loss of US military supply will not be compensated in Europe.
Mitrokin added that whether Ukraine needs to survive without US military aid will be related to the time it takes for relations with Russia to deteriorate.
“The relationship between Trump and Putin will become sour and soon there will be a critical increase in US supply,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Russians and Americans in expensive suits”
Kyiv-based analyst Alexey Kushch said Zelenskyy is right to reject Trump’s deal that links military aid to Ukraine’s mineral resources.
He told Al Jazeera that the US should treat Ukraine like an ally and if Washington writes down half of its debt and schedules the rest when it’s paid back by the end of the century, “it’s just fine.” Ta.
“Referring to the billions of dollars in military equipment provided by Washington during World War II that Russia completed payments in the 1990s, the Soviet Union would compensate for military aid by giving natural resources. No one asked for it.
“Why is Ukraine an ally?” Kush asked Al Jazeera.
Whether the US will halt military aid or not, some Ukrainians feel disillusioned with the latest developments.
“As usual, someone else will determine our fate,” said Vseborod Boyko, the principal of a retired school whose son Ihor is fighting in Donbas despite the wounds of two people. told Al Jazeera.
“A bunch of Russians and Americans in expensive suits will carve out Ukraine without asking us,” Boyko said. “And if you refuse their condition, they press a button to stop the aid.”